Europe vs USA: We predict who will win the 2024 Solheim Cup
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Matt Cooper takes a look at the history of Team Europe and Team USA, and reveals who he thinks will win the Solheim Cup this year.
In Solheim Cup week it is essential to remember that everything you have ever expected from the women’s game is about to be ripped up and tossed away.
In any normal week on the LPGA or LET the players pick their way around the course in a composed and deliberate manner. They heed the lessons of their mind coaches. They appreciate that it is essential to remain cocooned within their own space. Routines, emotional stability and a steady nerve are deemed critical and for individual stroke play that makes absolute sense.
But in Solheim Cup week? Forget it. Forget all of it. None of it matters. There is no polite clapping on the first tee; there are songs and chants and cat calls. There are no limp smiles in response to a birdie; there is screeching and hollering, chest-bumping and fist-pumping.
Defeat hurts. Victory is glorious. And ties are, well, we’ll come to that later. It’s the best week of women’s golf, the recent history has been explosive and we might be set for the best one yet.
History
The first match took place in Orlando, Florida in 1990 and witnessed victory for the home team. Two years later Europe tasted success in Scotland but thereafter the Americans took a firm grip on the trophy and they won eight of the first 11 matches. The tide changed at the 2011 match in Ireland when Europe snatched victory late on Sunday and they backed up their success with a first triumph on American soil when completing an 18-10 thrashing in 2013. The proud Team USA won back-to-back in 2015 and 2017 before Europe came fighting back. Scot Catriona Matthew captained Europe to victory on her home soil at Gleneagles in 2019 and she remained in charge to successfully defend the trophy at Inverness (in Toledo, Ohio rather than the Highlands). And then the match headed to Spain for the first time…
Last year’s sensational finale
Team USA, captained by Stacy Lewis, raced into a 4-0 lead during the Friday morning foursomes, stunning the galleries who were hiking the contours of Finca Cortesin in Andalucia, Spain. The European captain Suzann Pettersen had a huge task on her hands but her response, and that of her team, was impressive. They won both fourball sessions 3-1, either side of sharing the Saturday morning foursomes 2-2, to tie the match at eight points apiece heading into a Sunday singles sessions in which splitting the two teams proved impossible.
With eight matches on the course the projected score was 14-14. With all 12 matches having left the first tee that situation remained the same. Tiny advantages swung one way and then the other. The visitors won two of the first four matches out, the home team the other two, the next pair of games were halves. In a mini-rush of points the American went 13-11 up with Lexi Thompson, who is retiring from a full-time professional golf schedule this year, on the brink of victory. Europe could suddenly afford to make no mistakes whatsoever.
And yet Caroline Hedwall was 3-down with six to play against Ally Ewing. The American didn’t drop a shot thereafter but Hedwall made four birdies and an eagle to win 2-up. Her fellow Swede Maja Stark inched past Allisen Corpuz which meant the penultimate match out – World No. 1 Nelly Korda versus Spanish heroine Carlota Ciganda – would determine the outcome of the entire week. Ciganda had been 3-up but the game was tied after 15. At 16 Korda’s approach left her 8-feet for birdie. Ciganda’s effort was better. Korda blinked and missed. Ciganda did not. From the tee of the par-3 17th the Spaniard’s ball again came to rest 2-feet from the flag and this putt was for the match, a 14-14 tie and retention of the Cup. She holed it and carnage ensued.
Why the tie matters
The players and fans could surely be forgiven for the mayhem that followed. Europe had been 4-0 down after the first session. With 90 minutes of golf to play they were again staring at defeat. To have endured such stress and to have emerged from such deep, deep holes to retain the Cup demanded a release of undiluted passion.
And yet it is equally understandable that the watching Americans were irked by celebrations of triumph that were at odds with the actual result. No-one was more vexed than the US captain Lewis. She drew her team together on that 17th green and she later revealed what she said.
“I made them all cry, which was not my intent,” she said. “I just told them how proud I was of them and to hold their heads high. They had great attitudes, they were classy opponents, and they represented this country so well. And then, I just referenced the fact that, I don’t want to sound like a sore loser, but it was a tie, and I think that’s a lot for this team to build off of.” She then added, with eyes narrowed: “Fortunately, we only have to wait another year to go get this thing back.”
Ah yes, just the one year. You see Covid 19 knocked the Ryder Cup from the even years to the odd ones. Last year that created a marvellous fortnight of trans-Atlantic team golf but was a one-off rather than a new tradition. Hence the Solheim’s quick turnaround and, because of it, the two captains have remained in office.
Ahead of last month’s AIG Women’s Open Lewis was asked again about the tie and it was clear that the itch was yet to be scratched. “As soon as I got home, it just felt like a carry over,” she said. “It has felt like unfinished business. You know, it’s worked out nicely that Suzann and I are both coming back. I’m sure she feels differently but I feel like it’s time to settle the score and because they are so close together I haven’t had a break from it. We got home from Spain and immediately started planning the next one. It’s been a long three years, I will say that.”
There has been much discussion about the need in future for a play-off to split any ties. In essence this rather highlights a culture clash. Americans don’t like draws and consider them unresolved issues. Europeans have a tradition of such results and appreciate that those seeking to regain a trophy must defeat the holders outright to do so (although it also has to be said that Americans have experienced such situations frequently in boxing world title fights).
The captains
The re-match between the two captains is a delicious prospect not least because the tie left the question of who was better undetermined, a little like the above-mentioned world title fights. Moreover, Lewis versus Pettersen was an intriguing clash of method, manner and temperament.
Lewis is flinty-eyed and a little wary. She’s a tough cookie whose career was a tale of triumph over adversity following the need to have a painful spinal fusion in her early teenage years. Pettersen is also hard, but more obviously so. She leads by fire and fury example.
Lewis was happy to conclude that her approach worked. “We’re close,” she said. “I don’t see a lot changing because it worked this year. You look at how many matches went down to 17 and 18. Things really could have been quite a bit different with one or two shots here and there.” Pettersen revealed her style when saying that she gave her team a talking to on Friday night. “It would probably not be appropriate to repeat what I said aloud,” she said. “But I think it was needed. They got the message.”
No team, neither USA or Europe, has held the Solheim Cup for four consecutive matches. This year Pettersen will create history or Lewis will halt it.
Controversy revived?
The Solheim Cup is famous for controversy and the needle has always added to the drama. At Loch Lomond in 2002 a chip shot by Annika Sorenstam found the bottom of the hole but the Americans insisted that she had played out of turn. She was forced to replay the shot but, with tears in her eyes, she failed to repeat her initial excellence. A furious European team used the incident to incite victory.
Fifteen years later, across the Baltic Sea in Germany the Saturday fourballs were dragged by bad weather, poor light and slow play into Sunday morning. The American debutant Alison Lee had already irritated the Europeans by picking up her ball on assumption of gimmes and when she did so again her opponent Pettersen was having none of it. Her reaction was understandable but flawed. The Americans were in huge trouble at the time and used their indignation to ignite a come back for the ages.
In 2021 Madelene Sagstrom picked up the ball of her opponent Nelly Korda when it hung over the hole. The Swede was conceding the putt, the Americans were concerned that it might have dropped given time to do so. Korda was awarded the hole. The Euros were less incensed than in the previous two episodes but once again they used it to fuel victory.
There’s a theme here: don’t go chasing the battle, think of the war.
Oh, and guess what? Alison Lee is in the US team for the first time since 2015. Questions will be asked. Those murky waters will be stirred in the build-up.
The stage
The Robert Trent Jones Golf Club is in Gainesville, Virginia about 30 miles south of Washington DC. It has hosted four editions of the Presidents Cup (Team USA won every time) and also hosted the 2015 Quicken Loans National on the PGA Tour. Barack Obama is a club member.
The front nine is tree-lined with many dog legs. The back nine is more open and plays alongside a lake. Most of the par-4s and par-5s have large white-sand bunkers by the landing areas which, depending on yardages, maybe cleared by the longer hitters. The par-3s are notable for featuring lake backdrops and often that water is in play. The designer RTJ Sr. described the land as “aesthetically perfect”.
How the two teams stack up
Cup experience
Both teams have a pair of rookies but beyond that Europe has a significant advantage where Solheim know-how is concerned. The visitors have four players who have played more than three matches, the Americans just one. Seven Euros have played more than two matches and just four have from the US.
Cup records
In terms of points won the European advantage is ever greater. Just four of Team USA’s match veterans have won more than 50% of their points and the Europeans have twice that number. Moreover, the worst Euro record (Sagstrom) is 39% and it betters no less than five of the American records.
Major championship quality
Finally, a tick for the home side. They have five major winners who have totalled seven wins against Europe’s three winners with a total of five. The Americans have won four of the last 10 majors, Europe just one. Nelly Korda is the only reigning major champion playing this week.
World rankings
Again the US leads. Eight of its team members rank in the world top 30 against five Europeans. Korda is the World No. 1, 2023 Women’s Open Champion Lilia Vu is ranked second. Europe’s top rated performer is Olympic star Celine Boutier at 10.
The Solheim Cup – our picks
To win – USA at 4/5 with BetVictor
Remember the golden rule of the Solheim Cup discussed above: don’t rile the opposition. There is nothing – not a long driver, accurate approach play or a hot putter – more dangerous than a team triggered by self-righteousness. Stacy Lewis has not allowed the fire in her belly to die out and she will be sure to fan those flames in the tummies of her team. There’s no doubting the US has poorer records in the event but many European records have started to degrade and there is genuine potential for the Americans to improve. Throw in ticket sales news which indicates that very few Europeans will be providing support outside the galleries and this could be a step too far for this team.
Top points score – Nelly Korda 15/2 with Skybet
Korda is a class act and this could be he defining Solheim Cup. She went 2-0 with Corpuz in the foursomes last year, a partnership that ought to be revived. She’s won two of her three singles and only a rampant Ciganda defeated her last time out. Find a neat fourball combination and Lewis’ star player could lead the charge.
Team USA Top-scorer – Jennifer Kupcho 12/1 each way with Skybet
Take note that Lewis has said that Kupcho is the best course fit in her team and also note that she was excellent on debut on home soil when partnered with Salas. She’s not around this time but she paired up with Ally Ewing in the recent LPGA pairs event. The price is big enough to take each way.
Team Europe Top-scorer – Linn Grant 13/2 with Skybet
Hull is favourite but has won less than 50% of her points since the end of the 2015 match. Second favourite Boutier is degrading: 100% on debut, 50% in 2021, nothing last year. Hall has won 37.5% of points in both the last two matches. Can Ciganda ride the wave of last year or will she return to her otherwise poor event form? If you trust Maguire to revive her match play skills over her poor form then 15/2 is tempting. Grant is the solid play however. Her form is as good as anyone in the team and we know that Pettersen trusts her: she led both the Friday morning foursomes and the Sunday singles last year, and she played all five sessions.
About the author
Matt Cooper
Contributing Writer
Matt Cooper has been a golf journalist for 15 years. He’s worked for, among others, Golf365, SkySports, ESPN, NBC, Sporting Life, Open.com and the Guardian. He specializes in feature writing, reporting and tournament analysis.
He’s traveled widely in that time, covering golf from Kazakhstan to South Korea via Seychelles, Sri Lanka and Nepal.
More straightforwardly, he’s also covered numerous Majors, Ryder Cups and Solheim Cups.
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Who will win the 2024 Solheim Cup?
