2025 Valspar Championship betting tips: Our expert’s top picks in Palm Harbor

Our resident betting expert picks out his top Valspar Championship betting tips ahead of the PGA Tour event from Florida’s Palm Harbor.

The 2025 PGA Tour season remains in Florida for one more week as a smattering of top stars make the four-hour drive from TPC Sawgrass down to Palm Harbor for the Valspar Championship.

The undulating, treelined, and heavily dog-legged Copperhead Course is one of the hardest tracks the pros will encounter all season, ranking eighth toughest in 2024 with a scoring average of +0.408. The course has an infamous reputation for its closing stretch of three holes dubbed the ‘Snakepit’, guarded by a large bronze statue of a poisonous viper. 

Last year saw American Peter Malnati claim his second PGA Tour victory, nine years after his first, holding off Cameron Young for the $1.52m winner’s cheque and a spot in the field at Augusta National.

But before diving into my betting tips for the week, here’s everything else you need to know…

Valspar Championship key details

Venue: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbor (Par 71 – 7,340 yards)

Format: 72-hole strokeplay with 36-hole cut

Purse: $8.7 million with the winner receiving $1.72m

FedEx Cup points: 500

Favorites: Justin Thomas 12/1, Tommy Fleetwood 14/1, Xander Schaufele 18/1

Defending champion: Peter Malnati (USA), -12

Most wins: K.J. Choi (KOR), Retief Goosen (RSA, Paul Casey (ENG), Sam Burns (USA); 2

• Golf World Top 100 Courses in USA

How to watch the Valspar Championship

US viewers can catch all the action on Golf Channel.

All times EDT

Thursday, March 20: The Golf Channel, 14.00
Friday, March 21: The Golf Channel, 14.00
Saturday, March 22: The Golf Channel, 13.00
Sunday, March 23: The Golf Channel, 13.00

UK viewers can catch all the action on Sky Sports Golf.

All times GMT

Thursday, March 20: Sky Sports Golf, 18.00
Friday, March 21: Sky Sports Golf, 18.00
Saturday, March 22: Sky Sports Golf, 17.00
Sunday, March 23: Sky Sports Golf, 17.00

Valspar Championship tee times

Tee times and groupings can be found here.

Valspar Championship betting tips

The Banker: Shane Lowry 25/1 e/w (8 Places Betfair Sportsbook)

Shane Lowry has been in fantastic form in 2025, finishing 20^th or better in 4 of his last 5 starts, including 2^nd at Pebble Beach behind an inspired Rory McIlroy. Rory was in full flow that day, so for Lowry to keep pace for as long as he did was encouraging and most of the time his work on the Sunday would likely have been good enough.

Since then, he’s finished 11^th at the Cognizant Classic, 7^th at Bay Hill where he was the 36-hole leader, and 20^th last week at the Players. All in all, it has been a fantastic run in Florida, and he can cap it off here with a win at the Copperhead Course.

Lowry’s form has been powered by excellent ball striking, ranking 5^th, 14^th, and 4^th in his last three starts in SG Approach, and 7^th, 18^th, and 10^th in SG Tee to Green. This excellent foundation makes for some excellent golf, and Lowry is clearly close to piecing altogether again.

For someone who’s first two PGA Tour wins were a WGC at Firestone and a major win at the Open Championship, it is disappointing that the Irishman has failed to add to his win tally, but he’s a reliable operator and at 25/1 I do think there is some upside with him this week.

While his Ryder Cup teammate, Tommy Fleetwood is priced at 14/1, Lowry is more than 10 points bigger, and I think the gap between Lowry and the very top of the market is too large.

In his two visits to this course, Lowry has finished 49^th, where he was 20^th at halfway, and then 12^th three years ago. He’s in great form right now and can build on these two starts to secure a long overdue third PGA Tour win.

Almost three years removed from beating McIlroy and Jon Rahm at Wentworth, Lowry would love to go into major season and a Ryder Cup year with an early win and this looks a good spot.

The Outsider: Lucas Glover 45/1 e/w (8 Places Paddy Power)

Lucas Glover has twice finished 3^rd in 2025, first at Pebble Beach and then again last week at the Players Championship. Given the quality of the fields, these are particularly pleasing results and suggest he’s still capable of winning on the PGA Tour if the situation is right.

Here at the Valspar it certainly looks like the stars could align, as he’s impressed all season at courses where he can play positional golf. He opened his season with a 21^st at the Sony Open, where he was 11^th at halfway, and those two 3^rd place finishes coming at Pebble and TPC Sawgrass suggest his best chances will come when power isn’t necessary.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook certainly fits that bill. Distance helps here, as it does at any course, but more important is finding fairways and greens, and Glover ranks 4^th in Driving Accuracy, which will set him up for success when it comes to his approaches.

Glover ranked 18^th at the Sony Open, 2^nd at Pebble Beach, 4^th at the Arnold Palmer, and 28^th last week in SG Approach, suggesting he’s hitting the ball plenty well enough to challenge here at Innisbrook.

I backed him here last year when he finished 11^th, and that was best finish at the course since finishing 4^th in 2007. With that said, he’s constantly finding himself in good positions early in the week here, and is just struggling to get it over the line, so maybe this week the stars will align for the veteran, at a course he clearly knows well and enjoys.

The Longshot: Rico Hoey 90/1 e/w (10 Places Ladbrokes)

Given the strength at the top of this market, I have taken as many places as I can get, but Rico Hoey looks a lively outsider for the Valspar Championship this week.

Hoey enjoyed a breakout campaign on the PGA Tour last year with four top 8 finishes, coming closest to victory at the ISCO Championship, where he lost in a playoff to Harry Hall. He hasn’t quite reached those same heights yet in 2025, but he’s threatening to do so, and his form suggests a big week is coming.

In his past three starts, Hoey has finished 25^th, 36^th, and 33^rd, and a final round 66 last week at TPC Sawgrass after a particularly tough Saturday was eye-catching. The results haven’t been there yet, but in his last two starts where strokes-gained data has been recorded, Hoey has ranked 3^rd and 14^th in SG Approach and 1^st and 2^nd in SG Tee to Green. Those efforts have come at the Cognizant Classic and Players Championship respectively, and if he can carry over that sort of ball-striking form in this event, he could challenge for a title once again.

Last year, Hoey started well at this event, sitting 6^th after round 2 and 8^th going into Sunday, but he couldn’t quite hold on, shooting a 78 to finish 54^th. The good news is, all his best golf on the PGA Tour has come since then, suggesting he will be far better prepared if he is in the same spot again this time around.

His best finishes have come in weak or opposite-field events, but his recent finishes in better fields have certainly caught the eye and I think this can translate into a good run at this year’s Valspar Championship.

Bonus Selection: Stephan Jaeger 66/1 e/w (8 Places, Paddy Power)

I was torn between Lucas Glover and Stephan Jaeger as my second pick this week, so I have decided to include both.

Jaeger has been playing some good golf in places in 2025, with a 3^rd place finish at the Sony Open the current highlight. I think he can go a couple better this week though and win what would be a second PGA Tour title in as many years.

Jaeger, who was always capable of winning at the Korn Ferry level (6-time winner), finally broke through for his first PGA Tour win in 2024, and perhaps most impressively did so by going toe-to-toe with Scottie Scheffler at the Houston Open.

He didn’t find himself truly in contention again until the Black Desert Championship in October, where he finished 2^nd, but he’s since added that 3^rd at the Sony and a 6^th in the Mexico Open, where he was 2^nd after round 2 and 3^rd after round 3.

Now, Jaeger returns to the Copperhead Course, where he was the first-round leader two years ago, and eventually finished 27^th. This is the first visit to this course since becoming a PGA Tour winner, and given that form at the Sony Open – where he finished so well earlier this year correlates nicely with this event, I think he is worth chancing.

Jaeger’s 20^th place finish last week at the Players will go under the radar but it was another step in the right direction, and he was 8^th after rounds 1 and 3 and struck the ball really nicely. Jaeger ranked 11^th in SG Approach last week and that was the 3^rd time this year he’s ranked 14^th or better in that category. Give this proven winner a chance at inviting odds.