2025 Valero Texas Open betting tips: Our expert’s top picks for final Masters warm-up

Our resident betting expert picks out his top Valero Texas Open betting tips ahead of the PGA Tour event in San Antonio.

Augusta National looms as the 2025 PGA Tour season arrives in San Antonio, where a host of top stars line up for a last competitive outing before the season’s first Major.

The Texas Open, which dates back 103 years to 1922, is the third-oldest tournament on the PGA Tour circuit and the sixth-oldest professional golf event worldwide.

Last time around at TPC San Antonio, American Akshay Bhatia defeated Denny McCarthy in a playoff to claim his second PGA Tour title. World No.21 Bhatia returns to defend in a strong field featuring Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, and Hideki Matsuyama.

It’s a final chance for those heading to Georgia next week to get their game Augusta-ready. But before diving into my betting tips for the week, here’s everything else you need to know…

Valero Texas Open key details

Venue: Oaks Course, TPC San Antonio, Texas (Par 72 – 7,438 yards)

Format: 72-hole strokeplay with 36-hole cut

Purse: $9.5 million, with the winner receiving $1.71m

FedEx Cup points: 500

Favorites: Ludvig Aberg 12/1, Tommy Fleetwood 14/1, Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners, and Patrick Cantlay 18/1

Defending champion: Akshay Bhatia (USA), -20 (playoff)

Most wins: Arnold Palmer (USA), Justin Leonard (USA); 3

• Golf World Top 100 Courses in USA

How to watch the Valero Texas Open

US viewers can catch all the action on the Golf Channel.

All times EDT

Thursday, April 03: The Golf Channel, TBC
Friday, April 04: The Golf Channel, TBC
Saturday, April 05: The Golf Channel, 15.30
Sunday, April 06: The Golf Channel, 14.30

UK viewers can catch all the action on Sky Sports Golf.

All times BST

Thursday, April 03: Sky Sports Golf, 13.15
Friday, April 04: Sky Sports Golf, 13.15
Saturday, April 05: Sky Sports Golf, 14.00
Sunday, April 06: Sky Sports Golf, 18.00

Valero Texas Open tee times

Tee times and groupings can be found here.

Valero Texas Open betting tips

The Banker: Corey Conners 18/1 e/w (Betfair and Paddy Power 6 Places)

The case is very simple for Corey Conners. He is already a two-time winner of this event, and that alone would put him in the picture. Now factor in that he’s arguably in the form of his career, and you have a rock-solid contender.

Any pushback you are going to see with Conners this week is going to be about him winning the same event three times, but we have seen golfers such as Stuart Appleby and Steve Stricker win at a course three years in a row, and we are at least giving Conners a couple of years off in between!

Data Golf has him as the 14^th best player in the world and while they did rank him as high as 9^th back in 2021, this Conners’ current run feels like its been timed perfectly. He ended 2024 with a 7^th place finish at the Procore Championship and a 6^th place finish at the Nedbank, and he kicked off 2025 with a 5^th place finish at The Sentry. He struggled for three events, but he’s back on the train now, and he looks ready to win again.

In his past four starts, Conners has finished 24^th at the Genesis Invitational, 3^rd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 6^th at The Players, and 8^th at the Valspar Championship. In the last three starts, he’s gained strokes in all four Strokes Gained categories, and is crucially putting solidly, which is leading to this run of form.

We know Conners is one of the best ball strikers in the world, and him ranking 5^th, 12^th, and 8^th in his last three starts in SG Tee to Green is just common practice, but 13^th, 13^th, 21^st, and 36^th in SG Putting in his last four events is a rarer sight, and a huge difference maker.

With question marks about the likes of Ludvig Aberg and Tommy Fleetwood at the top of the market, I think now is the time for Conners to strike again.

The Outsider: Lee Hodges 60/1 e/w (Sky Bet 8 Places)

Lee Hodges missed six weeks of action as a rib injury had kept him out of action since finishing T57 at the Phoenix Open. If we assume he was struggling that week, that would certainly explain the T57 finish there, his worst effort of 2025. Before that Hodges has finished 10^th, 34^th, 9^th, and 33^rd in his first four starts of 2024.

Returning last week at the Houston Open, Hodges didn’t miss a beat, finishing in 11^th place, shooting 66-65 over the weekend to climb the leaderboard. This was no doubt encouraging for Hodges who will have been itching to get back on the course after a strong start to the year.

Having finished 11^th or better in 3 of his 6 starts this year, it is certainly worth looking at Hodges’ past efforts here, and at correlating courses, to see if he stacks up as a good selection. Hodges has played in each of the past three years, missing two cuts. On the one occasion he did make the weekend however, he finished in 6^th place, and that added to another 14^th-place finish on this course, when playing on the Korn Ferry Tour.

Add to his course form, strong efforts at the RSM Classic (T5) and the Sony Open (T10), two courses that have provided plenty of crossover through the years, and I think Hodges looks a good bet.

He ranked 25^th in SG Approach last week, his second best approach-play effort of the year, and he also ranked 18^th in SG Tee to Green, tied for his best effort in that category as well. Hitting the ball like that when you have been out for six weeks is impressive, and hopefully he carries that into this week, where ball strikers come to the fore. If his ball striking does slightly tail off, we can lean on the fact he ranked 3^rd in the field for Scrambling when 6^th here in 2023, suggesting he can get up and down at this course when he needs to.

The Longshot: Eric Cole 80/1 e/w (Sky Bet 8 Places)

Eric Cole is finding form at the right time, and while he’s had a winning problem since stepping up on the PGA Tour, I believe he could breakthrough here, in an event that offers the ultimate reward – a first win and a Masters spot!

We have already spoken about links to both the RSM Classic and the Sony Open when looking for a Valero winner, and the good news is, these two courses are among Cole’s favourites. He has finished 3^rd and 15^th at the RSM Classic and 5^th and 13^th at the Sony Open. That 5^th at the Sony Open is what kicked off his year in 2025, and since then he has finished inside the top 20 just twice more. The good news is, those came in the past two weeks, when finishing 12^th at the Valspar and 15^th last week in Houston.

He did go off the boil for a few weeks, but it looks like Cole is back on track and given he was 7^th at halfway in this event two years ago and 6^th at the same stage in the Korn Ferry event a couple of years prior, there is some suggestion at least that he likes the course. He hasn’t figured out all four rounds yet around TPC San Antonio, but he’s hitting his stride again, and with another year of experience under his belt, he may be better equipped this time.

Cole has ranked 10^th and 30^th in SG Approach and 22^nd and 23^rd in SG Tee to Green over the past fortnight, so he’s hitting the ball decently, and he closed with a bogey-free 65 on Sunday in Houston, so he could be in for a big week here in Texas.

The Bonus Pick: Ryan Gerard 66/1 e/w (Sky Bet 8 Places)

Ryan Gerard is in very good form, and while there might be doubts about him winning, at 66/1 I do think there is enough value to chance him breaking through here in Texas.

Gerard has played here, finishing 56^th on debut, but he looks a better player now, and his current form suggests a big week is coming. Since the start of the year, he has played 9 times, making the cut on 8 occasions, and he finally posted his first top 10 of the season last week in Houston.

It promised to be a lost better all week in Houston, as he was 1^st after round 1, 2^nd after round 2, and still 3^rd going into Sunday. He opened with two rounds of 65 and closed with a pair of 68s and still went backwards, such was the scoring over the weekend. I am not too concerned about him dropping down the leaderboard, given the quality that was coming through, and instead want to focus on the consistency.

When 37^th at the Sony Open at the start of the season, he was 11^th going into Sunday, and he finished T15 two weeks later at Torrey Pines. 17^th in Mexico where he was inside the top 10 for the first two rounds, and 25^th at the Cognizant, where he was again better placed after 54 holes all suggest his game is in great shape. He was also 14^th going into Sunday at The Players, and while there is a worrying trend of him falling away on payday, the first part of the challenge is to put yourself in the mix, and Gerard is certainly achieving that.

The 25 year old is still less than 3 years removed from turning pro, so he’s clearly still a bit green, but his start to the season suggests he has the ability required to contend, and now he just needs to fine tune his tournament performances.

Ranking 11^th and 2^nd the past two weeks in SG Approach suggests he’s hitting his irons close enough to score, and that will be important if he is to record his best finish of 2025 to date.

I am encouraged enough by his overall play and his first three rounds at the Sony Open, which has so often highlighted a potential challenger here at the Valero, to take a chance at him at prices north of 50/1.