This is the man to beat at The Players Championship (and he’s not in the world’s top 50)
Last updated:
We’ve identified a 200-1 longshot whose iron play and scoring average is better than Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy on the PGA Tour this season
The PGA Tour stats page is a treasure trove of interesting nuggets. Did you know Xander Schauffele hasn’t missed a cut for almost three years? Or that last week’s winner Russell Henley has had more top 10s than any other player this season?
We were less surprised to learn that Collin Morikawa and Rory McIlroy are leading the way in strokes gained: tee to green, but when it comes to actual or adjusted scoring average on the PGA Tour neither player comes anywhere close to the Ryder Cup hopeful who is top of both charts.
And no, the man we’re referring to isn’t Scottie Scheffler. It isn’t even Russell Henley or American Express winner Sepp Straka. All three do feature in the top 10, but their efforts pale in comparison to the kind of scores Nicolai Hojgaard has been putting up so far this season.
Though his performances in the FedEx Cup last year weren’t good enough to get him into last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, Hojgaard has been playing far better this season than the bookmakers are giving him credit for ahead of his return to action at the Players Championship this week.
It is a limited sample size, but Hojgaard’s adjusted scoring average of 69.479 is over half a shot better than the defending champion Scottie Scheffler. He is also on a run of eight consecutive rounds in the 60s, which is no mean feat when you consider he made a significant change at the top end of his bag to begin the new season.
During the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Rory McIlroy showed how sensitive tour players are to change and has since confirmed that he will be switching back to his original TaylorMade Qi10 driver for the foreseeable after losing strokes off the tee with the new TaylorMade Qi35 at Bay Hill.
Hojgaard, on the other hand, has had no such problems since switching into the Callaway Elyte Triple Diamond Max (9°) driver. The World No.72 has already gained an extra five yards off the tee, versus the Paradym Ai Smoke Triple Diamond driver, and is hitting more fairways than he did during his rookie PGA Tour campaign in 2024.
That last part feels especially important when you consider how good his iron play has been since switching into the Callaway X-Forged 24 irons last season. He currently ranks first for greens hit in regulation and second for strokes gained: approach the green, behind rookie Jackson Suber.
Of course, none of that matters much if you can’t convert, but Hojgaard has also been making considerable gains ever since he started using the Odyssey O-Works Jailbird Mini putter in the summer of 2023. He currently has the best conversion rate from inside 10ft than any other player on Tour right now.
When you add all that up, one top 10 from four starts in 2025 does seem like a poor return for someone who is at the top of their game right now, but golf does have a way of putting people down before bringing them back up. If it happens at TPC Sawgrass, the return could be extremely handsome for everyone involved.
Including those of us who choose to back him at 200-1.
What’s in Nicolai Hojgaard’s bag?
Click here for the full run-down of Hojgaard’s golf bag.
Nicolai Hojgaard uses a Callaway Elyte Triple Diamond Max driver (9°) with a Fujikura Ventus TR Black 7-X shaft
Pros
Cons
Nicolai Hojgaard uses Callaway X Forged Irons (4-PW) with Project X LZ 6.5 shafts
Nicolai Hojgaard uses an Odyssey O-Works Jailbird Mini Putter
Pros
Cons
-
Nicolai Hojgaard has been gaming the Callaway Elyte TD Max Driver since the start of the 2025 season.
