2025 Players Championship betting tips: Our expert’s top picks for TPC Sawgrass
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Our resident betting expert picks out his top Players Championship betting tips ahead of the PGA Tour’s flagship event.
The arrival of the 51st Players Championship brings with it the season’s first major vibe.
While not one of the “big four” on paper, the PGA Tour’s flagship event fits a major billing in every other department from the quality of its 144-man field to its unmatched $25m purse.
The Players is undoubtedly a bucket-list win on any resume and boasts one of the game’s most illustrious roll call of champions including Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Sergio Garcia, Phil Mickelson, Adam Scott, Tiger Woods, Greg Norman, Fred Couples, Lee Trevino, and three-time victor Jack Nicklaus.
World No.1 Scottie Scheffler returns to the iconic Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass as the only back-to-back winner in the tournament’s history, and will go off as the heavy favorite to make it a threepeat. But before diving into my betting tips for the week, here’s everything else you need to know…
Players Championship key details
Venue: TPC Sawgrass, Florida (Par 72 – 7,275 yards)
Format: 72-hole strokeplay with 36-hole cut
Purse: $25 million with the winner receiving $4.5m
FedEx Cup points: 750
Favorites: Scottie Scheffler – TBC, Rory McIlroy – TBC
Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler (USA), -20
Most wins: Jack Nicklaus (USA), 3
How to watch The Players Championship
The Players Championship will be broadcast on the Golf Channel in the US, and on Sky Sports in the UK from Thursday, March 13, with additional build-up through the week.
Head over to our full Players Championship TV schedule for all the key timings you need.
The Players Championship tee times
Tee times and groupings can be found here once released.
The Players Championship betting tips
Before we get to my outright picks, I’ve also done some specials from other markets. You can read those here.
The Banker: Collin Morikawa
16/1 each-way (Betfred 8 Places)
If you are into trends, then Collin Morikawa probably finishes 17th this week. In his four starts in 2025, he has finished 2-17-17-2, which apart from being incredibly bizarre, is a sign of exceptional form.
Morikawa kept the pressure on Hideki Matsuyama all week in the season-opener at The Sentry, and it’s not often you’ll shoot 32-under-par in a tournament and fail to win. That was his first runner-up of the year, and he can be forgiven for missing out on that one, but this past weekend will feel worse. He held a three-shot lead going into Sunday, and shot level-par in the final round to lose by one. Look a bit closer though, and it still took a chip-in eagle on the 16th from Russell Henley to lose out there.
Sure, Morikawa is not without fault, after all he made bogey on the 10th and 14th and failed to to birdie any of his last six holes, but we know all too well how hard front running is.
Ultimately, the two-time major winner is putting himself in the mix regularly again, and after ranking 5th in SG Approach and 1st in SG Tee to Green, he’s clearly excelling in the area of his game that makes him one of the best in the world.
On paper, Morikawa’s record at TPC Sawgrass is average for a player of his ability, but look deeper and you’ll find some encouraging signs. In four starts at the Players, Morikawa has missed one cut, finished outside the top 40 twice, and has a best finish of 13th, but this doesn’t tell the full story.
When 41st on debut, Morikawa closed with a final round 66 and offered encouragement for the following year. He failed to capitalise, missing the cut in 2022, but since then he’s finished 13th in 2023, where he was inside the top 3 for the for the first two rounds and then 45th last year, where he was better placed before a poor Sunday.
The past two years, Morikawa has come into this event having missed the cut at Bay Hill the shaft before, and while he had finished 2nd at Riviera the start before missing the cut in 2022 and he had won the WGC Workday event the start before finishing 41st on debut, it’s actually this years preparation that encourages me the most. Trying to win in back-to-back weeks is hard at any time, but a week after winning a WGC and when playing Sawgrass for the first time is hardly ideal, and then spending all his energy chasing home Joaquin Niemann in the Genesis back in 2022 seemingly took it out of him.
If he doesn’t win again soon, question marks will be raised over his ability to get over the line, having passed up some good opportunities in recent years, but I am willing to bet on him this week, as I think it’s been a case of tough luck so far in 2025.
The Outsider: Sepp Straka
45/1 each-way (Ladbrokes 10 Places)
Sepp Straka is becoming one of the more reliable players in world golf and it speaks volumes about him, that we are not getting caught up in his form – instead coming to expect it from the Austrian.
Straka won his first PGA Tour title at the Honda Classic in 2022, but he also went on to lose twice in a play off in the same year. Close to a three-win season that year, it was always going to be interesting to see how he responded in 2023 and it was emphatically. He doubled his win tally at the John Deere Classic that year, recorded two top 10s in majors, including a 2nd at the Open Championship and also made his Ryder Cup debut.
He did go winless in 2024, but he put that right with a win early in 2025 at the American Express, and a first multi-win season of his career looks a very real possibility.
Straka has already posted a top 10 at TPC Sawgrass, and was 16th again last year, so given he has finished 15th or better in 6 of his 8 starts in 2025, he looks good value to play well again.
The Long Shot: Michael Kim
90/1 each-way (Betfred 8 Places)
Michael Kim secured an each-way payout for us last week at Bay Hill, and while many found it hard to believe he could win that event, and will have the same concerns this week, his form is impossible to ignore.
In his last five starts Kim has finished 2-13-13-6-4, which is a strong run of form for anybody, let alone someone currently sitting outside the top 50 in the world rankings. On that note, Kim is expected to climb into 52nd in the world rankings, and just two spots outside that coveted Masters spot. Another good week here should take care of that.
Powering this run of form is an exceptional all-round game, where all facets look reliable, as Kim has ranked inside the top 5 for SG Tee to Green in 3 of his last 5 starts and inside the top 20 in all five. That is a remarkable run and one that can continue at TPC Sawgrass.
Kim has played here four times, missing three cuts, but he’s never came into the week in the form he’s in right now, and just last year he opened with a round of 68 to sit 12th on day one. A second round 80 followed 12 months ago, but it certainly feels that Kim is playing well enough right now to avoid destabilising rounds like that. At a course like TPC Sawgrass, experience can count for a lot, and while he doesn’t have the best form here, he has teed it up four times, so he knows what to expect.
While it’s perhaps a stretch to say Kim is the next potential breakout star on the PGA Tour, he is getting hot at the very best point of the season, and someone like Wyndham Clark completely changed his career in one season, so it’s not impossible Kim does the same. Sometimes it’s important to remember that while he’s spent years struggling, Kim is still a former Jack Nicklaus and Haskins Award winner, which are given to the best division 1 college player and the best national college player respectively. That same year he was 10th going into the final round of a U.S. Open as an amateur and finished T17. All this to say he’s a player with incredible pedigree and there’s signs he’s now ready to live up that lofty reputation.
Course form suggests this isn’t the best spot for him to get the biggest win of his career, but I am willing to bet on the fact that he plays better this week, as he comes in full of confidence and in some of the best form in the field.
He’s playing like a top 25 player in the world, but he’s not priced like one right now. Take a shot.
Before I go, don’t forget to check out my Players Championship specials!
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The Players Championship features one of the strongest fields in golf.
