2025 Texas Children’s Houston Open betting tips: McIlroy fine tunes for Augusta National

2025 Texas Children's Houston Open betting tips from Today's Golfer.

Our resident betting expert picks out his top Texas Children’s Houston Open betting tips ahead of the PGA Tour event.

Newly crowned Players Champion Rory McIlroy lines up at the Texas Children’s Houston Open for a final event before The Masters where he aims once again to complete the career Grand Slam.

The season’s first major at Augusta National will be just a fortnight away when the field tee it up at Houston’s Memorial Park Golf Course. Last year saw German Stephan Jaeger secure his first PGA Tour win, holding off a strong chasing pack that included Scottie Scheffler, Thomas Detry, and Tony Finau by a shot.

Before revealing my Texas Children’s Houston Open betting tips, here’s everything else you need to know…

Texas Children’s Houston Open key details

Venue: Memorial Park Golf Course, Houston, Texas (Par 70 – 7,435 yards)

Format: 72-hole strokeplay with 36-hole cut

Purse: $9.5 million with the winner receiving an estimated $1.65m

FedEx Cup points: 500

Favorites: Scottie Scheffler 7/2, Rory McIlroy 7/1

Defending champion: Stephan Jaeger (GER), -12

Most wins: Curtis Strange (USA), Vijay Singh (FIJ); 3

• Golf World Top 100 Courses in USA.

How to watch the Texas Children’s Houston Open

US viewers can catch all the action on Golf Channel.

All times EDT

Thursday, March 27: The Golf Channel, 16.00
Friday, March 28: The Golf Channel, 16.00
Saturday, March 29: The Golf Channel, 13.00
Sunday, March 30: The Golf Channel, 13.00

UK viewers can catch all the action on Sky Sports Golf.

All times GMT

Thursday, March 27: Sky Sports Golf, 20.00
Friday, March 28: Sky Sports Golf, 20.00
Saturday, March 29: Sky Sports Golf, 17.00
Sunday, March 30: Sky Sports Golf, 18.00

Texas Children’s Houston Open tee times

Tee times and groupings can be found here.

Texas Children’s Houston Open betting tips

The Banker: Aaron Rai

25/1 e/w (Paddy Power 8 Places 1/5)

One player who is clearly trending in the right direction is England’s Aaron Rai, and he will now be looking for his second PGA Tour win, after beating Max Greyserman to claim the Wyndham Championship last year.

Rai is a player who tends to repeat form at certain golf courses, as evidenced by 1st and 4th place finishes at the Scottish Open, 2nd, 4th and 14th-place finishes at the BMW PGA Championship, and most importantly two 7th-place finishes here at the Houston Open.

Last year he finished just two shots adrift of the eventual winner, Stephan Jaeger, with a round of 70 on Friday largely to blame. His two 67s over the weekend added to his opening round 66 to show his scoring prowess at this golf course, and ensuring that his first effort in 2022 was more than a fluke.

Adding further fuel to his chances was his 4th place finish at the Mexico Open last month. We have seen plenty of crossover between the Mexico and Houston Open, and that correlation may have led bettors to back Jaeger here last year, given he had finished 3rd, 15th, and 18th there before and he also finished T6 again there this year. Other players who highlight this obvious link are Tony Finau who has won at both courses, Alejandro Tosti who finished 2nd here last year and has two 10th place finishes at the Mexico Open, and also Ben Taylor who has finished 3rd here and 8th at the Mexico Open. There are many others who have played well at both, but these three bring the link together nicely and ultimately strengthen Rai’s case.

4th, 11th and 14th in his last three starts, 7th twice at this golf course and 4th at the course that provides the best crossover all point to a big week from Rai who’s form suggests he can double his PGA Tour win tally.

Rai’s tidy all-round game should put him in the mix again here, and I think he rates as the best of the rest once you get past the obvious favourites this week.

The Outsider: Alex Smalley

66/1 e/w (Sky Bet 6 Places 1/5)

Alex Smalley is playing some very strong golf in 2025, finishing T21 or better in six of his eight starts this year.

He did miss the cut last week, but I am taking a shot on him bouncing back on a course where he finished 15th and 4th on his first two starts. Add to that 6th and 10th place finishes at the Mexico open, the event which I think provides the best crossover, and you have a stand out selection.

His best finish in 2025 was that 10th in Mexico, but on three occasions he’s promised to do even better. Firstly at the Phoenix Open, Smalley finished 21st, but was 2nd at the halfway mark, and then in Mexico he was 4th going into Sunday, but couldn’t get anything going and therefore failed to put pressure on the leading pack. Most recently, Smalley was inside the top 8 for the first two rounds of The Players, and actually sat in 3rd place going into Sunday, before finishing 14th.

Sure, this shows he has a bit of a problem finishing his tournaments off, of late, but this is an event where we could certainly see a breakthrough winner, as two of the four course winners (Carlos Ortiz and Stephan Jaeger) were both winning for the first time.

Smalley has shot a final round 65 in contention and lost by one, and he has also shot a final round 67 and been pipped by a surging Sepp Straka who shot a final round 62 and won by two, so twice he’s finished T2 and has a realistic shot of winning. Both times he’s been beaten rather than thrown it away, and now it’s his time to step up against superior opposition, just as Jaeger did against Scheffler and Ortiz did against Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama.

The Long Shot: Sami Valimaki

400/1 e/w (William Hill 8 Places 1/5)

For my long shot I am going to go for a home run selection, with Sami Valimaki, who has shown some positive signs of late.

Valimaki started his year with a missed cut at the American Express, but quickly made up for that with a 15th place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. He missed the cut again on his next start, but since then he’s made four cuts in a row, and I think there’s a chance he will enjoy this course.

A big part of that hunch is Valimaki’s record at the Mexico Open, where he finished 2nd last year, and was inside the top 10 for the first two rounds this year as well. This correlative form is certainly eye-catching, but he’s also impressed of late as well.

After his strong start to the Mexico Open, where he eventually fell away, Valimaki opened his account at the Cognizant Classic with a round of 63 to sit 2nd behind Jake Knapp after round 1. Fast forward to last week and he again started fast, this time opening with a round of 67 to co-lead on day one, so there are some positives in isolation.

In his last four starts, Valimaki has ranked 14th, 45th, 18th and 10th in SG Approach, and if he can sort out his driving this week, he could find himself in the mix later on in the week this time around.

Bonus Selection: Jake Knapp

75/1 e/w (Bet365 Each Way Extra 8 Places 1/5)

I am going to forgive one unsurprising missed cut and give Jake Knapp a shot at a golf course that looks perfect for skillset.

Knapp missed the cut at the Valspar last week, but the set up there doesn’t necessarily play to his strengths, and he was on what was perceived to be the “wrong side of the draw” despite that not really playing out.

Instead, I want to look at the body of work Knapp has put together for a month, which had seen him finish 17th at the Genesis Invitational, T25 at the Mexico Open as defending champion, 6th at the Cognizant Classic, and T12 at The Players.

He led for the first three rounds of the Cognizant Classic, where he opened with a 59, before a disappointing Sunday saw him fall out of the top 5, and he was also better placed at the Players, sitting in 8th going into the final round, before slipping to 12th. Sure the missed cut last week halted momentum, but I think he will like this course.

First of all there’s the obvious. I love the link between the Mexico Open and the Houston Open, and Knapp broke through to win his first PGA Tour title at the former 12 months ago. Add that to the fact he’s been hitting his approaches really well, and I think he’s ready to add a second PGA Tour title to his collection.

This course has typically favored those big hitters that can get hot with their irons and putter, and Knapp fits that description to a tee. I like his chances and he’s decently priced, due to his missed cut last week.

Honourable Mentions: Ryo Hisatsune (150/1) and Aldrich Potgieter (200/1)