2025 Mexico Open betting tips: Our expert’s top picks for Puerto Vallarta

Our resident betting expert picks out his top Mexico Open betting tips ahead of the PGA Tour event.

The PGA Tour heads south of the border following its third Signature event of the season at Torrey Pines to Vidanta Vallarta in Mexico where American Jake Knapp looks to defend his 2024 title.

Mexico’s national open has been running since 1944, returning six homegrown champions in that time, most recently in 2021 with Álvaro Ortiz’s triumph. Without elevated status, the event struggles to attract a huge amount of strength in depth, with many of the tour’s top stars preparing for a busy Floridian swing that starts in a fortnight with the Cognizant Classic, leading into the Arnold Palmer Invitational, before the season’s first acid test – the $25 million Players Championship.

Before we get to my betting tips, here’s everything else you need to know…

Mexico Open key details

Venue: Norman Signature Course, Vidante Vallarta (Par 71 – 7,456 yards)

Format: 72-hole strokeplay with 36-hole cut

Purse: $7 million with the winner receiving $1,458,000

FedEx Cup: 500 points

Favorites: Akshay Bhatia (14/1); Rasmus Hojgaard (18/1)

Defending champion: Jake Knapp (USA), -24

Most wins: Al Espinosa (USA), 4

How to watch the Mexico Open

US viewers can catch all the action on Golf Channel.

All times EST

Thursday, February 20: The Golf Channel, 16.00
Friday, February 21: The Golf Channel, 16.00
Saturday, February 22: The Golf Channel, 15.00
Sunday, February 23: The Golf Channel, 15.00

UK viewers can catch all the action on Sky Sports Golf.

All times GMT

Thursday, February 20: Sky Sports Golf, 21.00
Friday, February 21: Sky Sports Golf, 21.00
Saturday, February 22: Sky Sports Golf, 18.00
Sunday, February 23: Sky Sports Golf, 18.00

Mexico Open tee times

Tee times and groupings can be found here.

Mexico Open betting tips

The Banker: Akshay Bhatia

25/1 e/w (bet365 3 places market)

In the past fortnight you will have seen me tip 11/1 Rory McIlroy, and now the tournament favorite, Akshay Bhatia, but this week there are plenty of good reasons. In hindsight the Rory pick looks a miss, but I still would have made the bet under the same circumstances this week, so I am not going to be too downbeat about it.

This week though, we are looking at Bhatia, who I think is destined for a long career and can win on some of the biggest of stages. At the moment, it is hard to be bullish on his chances in the majors, because we haven’t seen enough, but I suspect in the next year or two that will change, and one thing I am certain on, is he can win this event.

He’s proven himself at the PGA Tour level already, first winning the Barracuda Championship in 2023, and following it up with a win at the Valero Texas Open last year. That win last year is not insignificant either, given it came at TPC San Antonio, a golf course designed by Greg Norman. Norman was also responsible for designing Vidanta Vallarta, this week’s host venue for the Mexico Open.

Bhatia played here in 2023 and finished in 4th place, thanks to middle rounds of 65 and 63. He was 4th at the halfway mark and 2nd going into Sunday, but didn’t quite have enough to make a charge on Sunday. Two years on, he has won two PGA Tour events, both in a playoff, and has shown he can mix it with the very best, which he won’t even have to do here.

This course doesn’t require a lot of thinking, hit it long, hopefully hit it again from the fairway – but if not, the rough is not too penal – and then make some putts. It really is a resort course that requires very little from this level of tour player.

The one thing that can be the difference maker here is the Paspalum grass used throughout the property, the strain of grass that we see used at the World Wide Technology Championship, the Corales Puntacana Championship, and the Puerto Rico Open. Bhatia has finished 2nd at the Puerto Rico Open, 10th at the World Wide Technology Championship, and 24th at the Corales, and when you add that to his 4th here, you can see he enjoys this putting surface. Add to that, the fact that his first win as a pro came at the Great Exuma Classic on the Korn Ferry Tour, another course that features Paspalum greens, and you have a very obvious candidate for the win here.

Bhatia started 2025 quietly after closing out 2024 with a 2nd in Japan, but he’s finding his form again, and was 9th last week at Torrey Pines. Two rounds of 67 kept him inside the top 10, despite disappointing rounds on Thursday and Saturday, and now he will get the relief of a far easier test.

Couple his 4th here two years ago with the wider Paspalum form, the Greg Norman design connection and the fact he ranked inside the top 15 for SGL Approach (8th), SG: Tee to Green (13th), and SG: Off the Tee (15th) last week, and Bhatia looks a worthy favorite to me. Jon Rahm and Tony Finau shared the first three renewals of this event, and Jake Knapp was even bet down to 40/1 last year, so I think you need to consider one of the favorites this week.

The Outsider: Antoine Rozner

90/1 e/w (Unibet 6 Places)

The last time we saw Antoine Rozner on the PGA Tour, he had just finished 48th, backing up two missed cuts to start the year. That finish at Torrey Pines last month doesn’t tell the full story, though, as he had made the most birdies of any player in the field that week, and just struggled to put it all together over four rounds at a new course.

He should find things a lot easier here in Mexico, and he will be buoyed by a 4th-place finish, as were we, when picking him at the Qatar Masters a fortnight ago. Sure, in isolation, contending on the DP World Tour is not enough to suggest a win is coming on the PGA Tour level, but other circumstances are at play.

First of all, this is a weak field. There are no two ways about it, this will be one of the weakest fields Rozner will play against on the PGA Tour, and certainly one of the easier golf courses, and that has to be considered. What should also be considered is the Frenchman’s form on Paspalum greens.

This process of looking at Paspalum form led to me picking Sami Valimaki at huge odds last year, and he hadn’t even shown the form Rozner just has back in Europe. Valimaki went on to finish 2nd, and that was almost exclusively the reason he kept his PGA Tour card, as he claimed 300 of his 418 FedEx Cup points here last year. This is a similar opportunity for Rozner, who has shown a clear love for this putting surface in the past.

Rozner has won two events on courses with Paspalum greens, having won the Mauritius Open and the Qatar Masters under the same conditions. His 4th last time in Qatar was the 11th time overall he has finished inside the top 10 at an event with type of putting surface. Perhaps the biggest indicator of his suitability is that he has finished 10th in the Oman Open, an event both Valimaki and Kurt Kitayama have won. Both of those players have been runners up here, and Rozner will be hoping for a similar impact this week.

The Long Shot: Aldrich Potgieter

100/1 e/w (BetMGM 6 places)

If we want to simply go down the bomber narrative here, then there is no better fit than the young South African, Aldrich Potgieter.

Potgieter had a chance to win the Nedbank Golf Challenge at home at the end of 2024, and he came blazing out of the gates in 2025, forcing himself into contention at Torrey Pines, a course that was tailored for his long driving ability.

This course is another one that allow him to take advantage of his best asset, but the difference here, is he can’t really get himself in trouble. Couple the freedom off the tee with a weaker PGA Tour field, and this feels like a great way for this supremely talented youngster to get up and running at this level.

Potgieter has already won on the Korn Ferry Tour, as he became the youngest winner on the Tour with his win at the Bahamas Great Abaco Classic. That win comes with an added layer of excitement because – you guessed it – the course featured Paspalum greens.

The course plays into his strengths, he’s got a win on the unique style of putting surface, and he’s already contended at both DP World Tour and PGA Tour level, both in recent memory – this looks like a great opportunity for the 20-year-old.