2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational betting tips: Our expert’s top picks for Bay Hill

Our resident betting expert picks out his top Arnold Palmer Invitational betting tips ahead of the PGA Tour’s fourth Signature Event.

The 47th renewal of the Arnold Palmer Invitational marks the second week of the Florida swing on the PGA Tour’s 2025 calendar, straddling the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, and golf’s “fifth major” – The Players Championship.

Orlando’s Signature Event has been hosted at Bay Hill Club and Lodge since 1979, four years after being purchased by the 7-time Major winning legend who describes the track as somewhere “you must play boldly to win.” Bay Hill consistently ranks in the top 10 hardest courses on the PGA Tour each year.

Last year’s edition kicked started a remarkable season for Scottie Scheffler, who cruised to a five-shot victory before going on to become the first player in 50 years to go back-to-back at The Players Championship, and then collect his second Green Jacket just weeks later.

After a six week break recovering from a rib injury, Xander Schauffele has announced his return and committed to playing the Arnold Palmer Invitational next week.

Before diving into my betting tips for the week, here’s everything else you need to know…

Arnold Palmer Invitational key details

Venue: Bay Hill, Florida (Par 72 – 7,466 yards)

Format: 72-hole strokeplay

Purse: $20 million with the winner receiving $4m

FedEx Cup points: 700

Favorites: Scottie Scheffler 10/3, Rory McIlroy 8/1, Ludvig Aberg 14/1

Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler (USA), -15

Most wins: Tiger Woods (USA), 8

• Golf World Top 100 Courses in USA

How to watch the Arnold Palmer Invitational

US viewers can catch all the action on Golf Channel.

All times EST

Thursday, March 06: The Golf Channel, 14.00
Friday, March 07: The Golf Channel, 14.00
Saturday, March 08: The Golf Channel, 12.30
Sunday, March 09: The Golf Channel, 12.30

UK viewers can catch all the action on Sky Sports Golf.

All times GMT

Thursday, March 06: Sky Sports Golf, 19.00
Friday, March 07: Sky Sports Golf, 19.00
Saturday, March 08: Sky Sports Golf, 17.30
Sunday, March 09: Sky Sports Golf, 16.30

Arnold Palmer Invitational tee times

Tee times and groupings can be found here.

Arnold Palmer Invitational betting tips

The Banker: Patrick Cantlay

25/1 e/w (William Hill 7 Places 1/5)

Patrick Cantlay needs a big season. We are coming up to three years since he last won on the PGA Tour, with his win at the 2022 BMW Championship becoming something of a distant memory, and that is not good enough for a player regularly inside the top 10 in the world.

Before this drought, Cantlay had won at least once on the PGA Tour for four years in a row, and in that time was the Player of the Year season in 2021, when winning three times. He will want to end lengthy spell without a win quickly, and certainly in time for major season. So why do I think it will happen this week?

Well, first of all, he’s made a solid start to the season. In four starts this year, he’s already posted two top 5 finishes, and he’s not finished worse than T33. Sure, any time he’s not actually contending for a win, he will be disappointed, but that just goes to show the level of player he is, and these four starts are very obvious building blocks.

In each of his past two starts he’s ranked 9th in SG: Approach which suggests his ball striking is closer to where he wants it to be, and he now returns to a course where he’s played well already.

Cantlay finished 4th on debut here in 2022, and he was inside the top-5 for three of the four rounds, just struggling for one round on Saturday. He returned last year and while there weren’t as many fireworks, as he finished just 36th, it was another four rounds of Bay Hill experience under his belt.

He comes into the week off the back of a top-5 at Torrey Pines and that was his second 5th-place finish of the season, adding to a 5th at the American Express, where he bounced back from a slow start to climb the leaderboard.

Cantlay has already come close to winning in Florida at the Valspar Championship, and he was in the mix briefly at the Players in the past as well, so this looks a good state for him to play in when in form.

The Outsider: Michael Kim

80/1 e/w (Sky Bet 6 Places 1/5)

Michael Kim is playing some of the most consistent golf of his career right now and given we know his upside is an eight-stroke win on the PGA Tour, we should certainly keeping an eye on him this week.

There are five tournaments left for Kim to push himself inside the top 50 in the world and book a spot at Augusta National, and if he keeps up his current form he will be very close to doing so. If he wins, he will make his way in.

In 2025, Kim has played seven events and while he made a slow start, the way he’s played over the past four weeks has more than made up for it. His 2nd at the Phoenix Open was followed by back-to-back 13th-place finishes at Torrey Pines and Mexico, and he added a 6th-place finish last week at the Cognizant Classic. Kim was 2nd going into the final round last week, and was trailing Jake Knapp by just one stroke. Neither player was able push forward and win, but it was another sign that Kim is in really strong form.

This four-week stretch hasn’t come completely out of the blue, the American had also ended 2024 strong, finishing 5th at the Shriners, 12th in Bermuda, and 11th at the RSM Classic, so he’s been showing signs for a while now, even if it took him a while to get going to start 2025.

Over the past four weeks, Kim has ranked 8th, 19th, 34th and 27th in SG: Approach, but he also been strong off the tee and around the greens, which has seen him rank 2nd, 20th, 13th, and 5th in SG: Tee to Green overall.

Data Golf has him as the 50th best player in the world, and if he can match that ranking over the next few weeks, he will be making just his second trip to Augusta National and first since 2019. This must be a huge motivational driver for Kim, and given his form, it looks very achievable.

Kim has only played Bay Hill twice but he finished 17th on debut back in 2017 to suggest that if he’s playing well he can succeed round here, and he’s priced very fairly to do just that.

The Long Shot: Brian Harman

100/1 e/w (William Hill 7 Places 1/5)

Brian Harman is bubbling under the surface and I think he’s very close to another breakout week, even if his final finishes suggest he’s still some way off.

The 2023 Open Championship winner enjoyed a steady year in 2024 without adding another win, and he will be keen to add some more silverware to his cabinet soon, with this looking a decent chance for him to do so at a big price.

Harman’s Arnold Palmer Invitational form is very volatile, but last year when playing here in an elevated field, he finished in 12th place and that was actually his best finish at this course. He’s also finished 13th, 15th and 17th in the past to suggest it wasn’t a flash in the pan, and given he was the co-leader at halfway 12 months ago, I am encouraged by his chances at Bay Hill.

Ranking 8th in SG: Approach and 9th in SG: Tee to Green last week, both of which were season-high, Harman should come into this one full of confidence and that could be the catalyst for a big week.

There have been signs in 2025 already, as he was 5th after 54 holes at the Sony before finishing 21st, and he was inside the top 12 after 36 holes both at the Phoenix Open and last week at the Cognizant Classic, which suggests there could be a big week be on the horizon.

Harman hasn’t been able to put four rounds together so far in 2025 or indeed at this golf course, but the signs are there on both fronts and now that he’s enjoyed a better ball striking week, I think we should give him a shot at 100/1+ this week.