Who will win the U.S. Open? 10 steps to predicting the 2024 champion at Pinehurst…

Who will win the 2024 US Open?

By looking back at trends from recent U.S. Opens it’s possible to cut the field down to size and work out the most likely winner in Pinehurst.

US Open action returns to Pinehurst’s No.2 course in North Carolina for the first time since 2014 when Germany’s Martin Kaymer stormed to victory with a dominant eight-stroke battering of the field.

And while the No.2 course challenge is a glorious anomaly compared to typical US Open setups, it’s difficult to completely disregard the evidence as a sheer coincidence. With that in mind and the season’s third Major drawing ever closer, here’s how we worked out who will win the 2024 US Open…

1. WE’LL BEGIN WITH A BAD REVELATION FOR SOUTHPAWS. A LEFT-HANDER HAS NEVER WON THE US OPEN.

Controversially, our first hurdle wrecks the hopes of Open champion Brian Harman, Phil Mickelson, and rising star Akshay Bhatia.

2. IT IS NOT MUCH BETTER NEWS FOR DEBUTANTS. THE LAST FIRST-TIMER TO WIN WAS 1913 US OPEN CHAMPION FRANCIS OUIMET.

With regret, we remove Ludvig Aberg, Nicolai Hojgaard, and every competing amateur from our list of contenders.

3. NO ONE HAS EVER HELD THE US OPEN AND US SENIOR OPEN TITLES SIMULTANEOUSLY.

This is a good enough reason to dismiss Bernhard Langer. The 66-year-old has won enough silverware anyway.

4. EACH OF THE PAST 15 CHAMPIONS HAD TASTED VICTORY EARLIER THAT YEAR OR IN THE PREVIOUS SEASON.

This rules out former US Open champs Jordan Spieth, Gary Woodland, Martin Kaymer, and – dare we say – Tiger Woods. We also lose Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Will Zalatoris and Denny McCarthy. We had excluded Xander Schauffele up until his victory at Valhalla in May. The newly-crowned PGA champion should no longer be discounted considering his record at the US Open and his current winning form.

5. MAJOR PEDIGREE IS A BIG INDICATOR OF SUCCESS. 13 OF THE LAST 14 WINNERS HAD PREVIOUSLY CLOCKED A TOP-25 FINISH AT A US OPEN AND AT LEAST ONE TOP-10 IN A MAJOR.

Yes, we know Wyndham Clark defied this trend, but he was very much the exception to the rule. That’s why we’re ruling out Max Homa, Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala, Tyrrell Hatton, Cameron Young, Chris Kirk, Ryan Fox, Eric Cole, Matthieu Pavon, Jake Knapp, and Nick Dunlap.

6. THE LAST 10 CHAMPS HAD ALL PLAYED NINE PREVIOUS US OPENS AT MOST. TEN OF THE LAST 12 WERE AGED 31 OR YOUNGER.

So we bid goodbye to more big names, such as Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Shane Lowry, Tony Finau, Jason Day, and Rory McIlroy, who has five top 10s – but no wins – in his last five US Open appearances.

7. THE LAST 10 WINNERS ALL RANKED IN THE TOP 35 PERCENT FOR DRIVING DISTANCE ON THE PGA TOUR ACROSS THE SEASON.

LIV Golf notwithstanding, it’s time to dismiss shorter hitters Tommy Fleetwood, Tom Kim, Sepp Straka, and Full Swing star Joel Dahmen. We can also discount Hideki Matsuyama and Collin Morikawa, despite their return to form.

8. THE LAST 10 WINNERS WERE RANKED INSIDE THE WORLD’S TOP 32 IN THE WEEK LEADING UP TO THEIR VICTORY.

Forget what you’ve heard about the Official World Golf Ranking no longer being fit for purpose. It matters in this context and allows us to eliminate every LIV player who has qualified except Jon Rahm (who has withdrawn anyway). And yes, that does count out Joaquin Niemann, should he receive an invite. We also lose Harris English, who has quietly posted three top 10s in his last four US Open starts.

9. YOU BETTER BE ACCURATE, BECAUSE NONE OF THE LAST 15 WINNERS WERE WORSE THAN T-18 FOR THE WEEK IN GREENS IN REGULATION

Of the seven players left, Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele are hitting the green around 70 percent of the time this season, which places them among the upper echelons of LIV and PGA Tour players. Matt Fitzpatrick and Min Woo Lee don’t even crack the top 90 for GIR on the PGA Tour so we’re writing them off. Read on to find out about the other two names.

10. THE LAST TIME PINEHURST HOSTED A US OPEN, IN 2014, THE FIELD MISSED THE GREEN 41 PERCENT OF THE TIME ON AVERAGE.

Around the greens is where the tournament will be won or lost on the No.2 course. Martin Kaymer topped the scrambling statistics in 2014, so we’re eliminating anyone with a short game that is not up to scratch. That includes defending champion Wyndham Clark and Viktor Hovland despite his improved form.

That leaves Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Jon Rahm…

Our winner is… Scottie Scheffler

US Open record: CUT, T27, CUT, T7, T2, 3

Sorry Jon and Xander, but did you really expect it to be anyone else? Scheffler is as short as 9-4 with some bookmakers and is dominating in a way we haven’t seen since Tiger in his pomp. Following last week’s victory at the Memorial Tournament, he’s now won 11 times (!) in the last 27 months and boasts a stroke average which is a full shot better than any other player on the PGA Tour. That most recent win also broke the trend that he’d never won an event later than April in the year.

His putting no longer appears to be an issue and his temperament should make him a great fit for a US Open set-up, especially as he ranks first for Strokes Gained: Approach Play and Around the Green (two of the most decisive metrics at Pinehurst). Rarely have we felt this confident about a player’s chance.

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About the author

Michael Catling
Features Editor

Michael Catling is Today’s Golfer‘s Features Editor and an award-winning journalist who specializes in golf’s Majors and Tours, including DP World, PGA, LPGA, and LIV.

Michael joined Today’s Golfer in 2016 and has traveled the world to attend the game’s biggest events and secure exclusive interviews with dozens of Major champions, including Jack Nicklaus, Jordan Spieth, Tom Watson, Greg Norman, Gary Player, and Justin Thomas.

Michael uses a Ping G driver, Ping G 3-wood, Ping G Crossover 3-iron, Ping G Series irons (4-PW), Ping Glide wedges (52º, 56º, 60º), TaylorMade MySpider Tour Putter, and Srixon AD333 golf ball.

Get in touch with Michael via email and follow him on Twitter.