Who will win the British Open Championship 2024 at Royal Troon?
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I examine the past trends and latest stats to identify the men most likely to win The Open at Royal Troon.
Conventional wisdom has it that what golf really needs right now is the best playing the best more often and that 2024’s major championships prove as much. (Although some big names won’t be in the Open field at Royal Troon.)
There is absolutely no arguing that the first three majors of the year have been magnificent but might it actually be the case that they have been so special because it is so rare to have the world’s finest golfers congregated together on a quest to win titles that really matter?
LIV Golf events are actually poor examples of what the circuit originally set out to achieve because the depth of field doesn’t come close to being 48 (now 54) of the world’s finest performers. Instead, the PGA Tour has come closer to that aim with one of its many ham-fisted responses to the rebels: the creation of Signature Events. But the reality is that these elite and limited field tournaments have lit the fire with all the effectiveness of wet wood.
In glorious contrast to the two tour’s untidy domestic arrangements, when the entire game is brought together in the four events that define a golfer’s career the sparks have flown and the flames burned bright.
Scottie Scheffler made the first move with a commanding performance at the Masters which overhauled an earlier salvo from LIV’s Bryson DeChambeau. A month later the big-hitter maintained his challenge right to the final hole, but he was unable to disrupt the evolution of Xander Schauffele from persistent contender to major champion. Undaunted, DeChambeau pushed on and found himself involved in a thrilling Sunday duel with Rory McIlroy, one that ended in X-rated golfing drama.
And now to the linksland of the Royal Troon. Who will lift the Claret Jug and will they maintain the drama of 2024? We probably need it after last year when Brian Harman prevailed in something of a literal and metaphorical damp squib.
The key numbers
What does it take to win an Open? Experience matters. Collin Morikawa bucked the trend in 2021 but nine of the other 10 most recent winners had already recorded a top 20 finish in the Open and eight of them a top 10. Familiarity with contending in the majors is also crucial. Every single one of those last 10 winners had already finished tied second or better in a major, and nine had a top 12 finish in their last four major starts.
It has also traditionally been the best major for older golfers: seven of the last 10 champions were 28 or older (six of those in their 30s or 40s).
What of form? Each of those last 10 winners was ranked top 40 in the world in the week of their win, eight of them had already won that year and eight had finished top three in one of his three previous starts (the two exceptions to this latter category were rather surprisingly Cameron Smith and Rory McIlroy).
The Troon test
There have been nine Opens at Royal Troon and although the course has the reputation for being an especially fierce test of the long game – particularly from the tee – the list of champions is varied enough to suggest that anyone in fine form can win there.
All nine of those winners had already won in the year of their Open triumph and the first six of them had won multiple times in the run-up to the championship. If the two most recent winners didn’t fit that pattern, then Todd Hamilton (in 2004) had won three times in Japan the year before his win and Henrik Stenson (in 2016) had followed two years of multiple wins with 18 months of near-misses ended by a win in June. When they hit the top, both were able to call on plenty of vivid top-of-the-leaderboard experience.
Hamilton and Justin Leonard had never dropped hints about their links expertise before winning at Troon but the other seven had all recorded a top 12 in the Open. Moreover, if you note the names of Troon’s runners-up, the idea that it suits quality links performers is further enhanced. They include: Walter Hagen, Robert DiVicenzo, Kel Nagle, Johnny Miller, Nick Price, Greg Norman, Darren Clarke, Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson. All of them are not only Open winners but also multiple contenders.
The Cognizant Classic connection
The Cognizant (formerly Honda) Classic was added to the PGA Tour schedule in 1972 and won by Tom Weiskopf who was victorious in the Open a year later at Troon. Since then another four Americans have won at Troon and three of them (Calcavecchia, Leonard and Hamilton) are also Classic winners.
There are plenty of reasons to doubt this connection. The fact that the Classic is played on resort courses in Florida which have only blustery wind in common with the linksland being the most significant one.
But Lee Trevino, Jack Nicklaus, Johnny Miller, Nick Price, Mark O’Meara, Padraig Harrington and Rory McIlroy have also completed the Honda/Claret Jug double while Open winners Sandy Lyle, Tiger Woods and Shane Lowry have been second in the Florida event. And the Classic’s 2022 champion Sepp Straka was second in the Open last year.
It’s important to add that many Classic winners have done nothing at the Open whatsoever. A win there alone is not in itself enough but bear it in mind.
The Scottish Open Factor
A decade ago pre-Open preparation was a hot topic, prompted by the decision of the Scottish Open in 2011 to decamp from its long-term home of Loch Lomond and journey around the nation’s coastline. It was a subject that Henrik Stenson became involved in – and which prompted some excellent banter between himself and the Scottish press, which was eager to present their Open as an attractive pre-major option.
At the 2013 Open Phil Mickelson prepared for his triumph at Muirfield with victory at Castle Stuart – and Stenson, who finished top three in both, said a year later: “It’s great links preparation.” He then countered that sometimes it was essential to preserve energy so he would not always play the Scottish and, indeed, he dropped it from his schedule before returning to Castle Stuart ahead of 2016 event.
The Scottish press took note and he said: “You want me to say I was second at the Open due to playing at Castle Stuart? You’re heading there again. You’re very loyal Scotsmen, aren’t you?”
There have now been 12 Opens since 2011 and eight winners chose to play the Scottish Open as preparation (not all contended but all eight made the cut). A ninth – Shane Lowry – played links golf at home in Ireland ahead of winning at Royal Portrush. Two – Zach Johnson and Francesco Molinari – played the week before the Open in the John Deere Classic and finished top three (without winning). Only Jordan Spieth didn’t play at all.
Now that the John Deere Classic is played two weeks before the Open, the Scottish Open is the only genuine competitive option and Stenson’s words ring true: “If you are going to be properly prepared for the Open you have to either play the course, play a links course somewhere or play the Scottish Open.”
The curveball is LIV. Their Open prep will take place at Valderrama.
Who will win the Open? My top picks
I’ve profiled every single player in The Open field here, but these are the men I’ve really got an eye on.
Rory McIlroy win 8/1 with Ladbrokes
World ranking? 2nd
Major quality? Four-time winner including second in the US Open
Open pedigree? Winner in 2014 – top six in six of his last eight starts
Strong form? Three-time winner in 2024, second last time out
Playing the Scottish Open? Yes – the defending champion
Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way: those two short putts he missed on the final three holes of the US Open. They will hurt. They will sting. They will linger in the mind. But two factors are at play here. The first is that this search for the winner is a brutal quest – failure in any category has resulted in a cull and neither Bryson DeChambeau or Scottie Scheffler are playing the Scottish Open. That leaves McIlroy alone among the favourites in having a tick in every category. The other consideration is that McIlroy has bounced back from his biggest falls. Remember how he won the US Open after visiting the wooden chalets no-one knew about left of the 10th tee when holding the lead heading into the back nine at Augusta National? He needs a repeat and he is capable of it.
Tom Kim each way 40/1 with Skybet
World ranking? 17
Major quality? Second in last year’s Open, eighth in last year’s US Open
Open pedigree? See above
Strong form? Second two starts ago in the Travelers Championship
Playing the Scottish Open? Yes
The only category he doesn’t fit is age and he’s good enough to take that on. His creative skills are a neat fit for the linksland and he’s shown a flair for major championship golf including when ninth after 36 and 54 holes of last month’s US Open. He was sixth in last year’s Scottish Open (when second heading into the final round) and sat T89th after 18 holes of last year’s Open before flying through the field. Only one man denied him at the Travelers – the World No. 1 Scheffler.
Jon Rahm each 25/1 with BetVictor
World ranking? 10
Major quality? Two-time winner
Open pedigree? Third at Royal St George’s in 2021 and second last year
Strong form? Third last time out at LIV Nashville
Playing the Scottish Open? No
Aside from Scheffler and DeChambeau, only Rahm fits every bill bar playing the Scottish Open. Nonetheless, we’ll pick the Spaniard because his price is generous. He’s finished top three in two of the last three Opens, is a two-time winner on Irish linksland, he carded a 63 in his third place at LIV Nashville at the end of June and, after a torrid time of it in the 2024 majors, this might be when the real Jon Rahm reappears. He’s also playing Valderrama this week, has been second there, and another good week will see his price drop.
Eric Cole each way 250/1 with Skybet
World ranking? 51
Major quality? Not really
Open pedigree? None (at least not exactly)
Strong form? Sixth in the Rocket Mortgage Classic
Playing the Scottish Open? Yes
For the final play we want a big price and need to stretch beyond the parameters, but we will pay close heed of that Honda Classic/Royal Troon link because last February Eric Cole lost a play off at PGA National. He’s never played in an Open but he did card a 64 to sit fifth with 18 holes to play in last year’s Scottish Open. And now we start to play with a few ideas. When Cole won last year’s PGA Tour Rookie of the Year award he was the oldest player to do so since … Todd Hamilton in 2004, the year he won the Open at Royal Troon. Cole is the son of LPGA player Laura Baugh and PGA Tour star Bobby Cole and the family were close to the Palmer family. Arnold Palmer won his second Open at Troon. And then there is Cole’s father, Bobby. He became the then-youngest ever winner of the Amateur Championship at Carnoustie in 1966 and nine years later led the Open at the same venue through 54 holes and eventually finished third, one shot outside a play-off. There’s plenty of potential for inspiration and there’s enough juice in the price to be worth chasing the place.
About the author
Matt Cooper
Contributing Writer
Matt Cooper has been a golf journalist for 15 years. He’s worked for, among others, Golf365, SkySports, ESPN, NBC, Sporting Life, Open.com and the Guardian. He specializes in feature writing, reporting and tournament analysis.
He’s traveled widely in that time, covering golf from Kazakhstan to South Korea via Seychelles, Sri Lanka and Nepal.
More straightforwardly, he’s also covered numerous Majors, Ryder Cups and Solheim Cups.
About the author
Matt Cooper
Contributing Writer
Matt Cooper has been a golf journalist for 15 years. He’s worked for, among others, Golf365, SkySports, ESPN, NBC, Sporting Life, Open.com and the Guardian. He specializes in feature writing, reporting and tournament analysis.
He’s traveled widely in that time, covering golf from Kazakhstan to South Korea via Seychelles, Sri Lanka and Nepal.
More straightforwardly, he’s also covered numerous Majors, Ryder Cups and Solheim Cups.
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