The Open 2022: Pundits’ preview and picks
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BBC Radio 5 Live golf commentators Iain Carter and Alistair Bruce-Ball reveal their betting favourites and long shots to target ahead of The 150th Open Championship – and why you shouldn’t back Patrick Cantlay, Tiger Woods, or Phil Mickelson…
Today’s Golfer’s 2022 Major coverage is brought to you in association with TaylorMade.
Are you excited yet? The final major of the year is nearly upon us and there’s more talking points to cover than a press conference featuring any one of the LIV Golf rebels. Tiger is back, Rory has rediscovered his A-game, and Bryson DeChambeau is getting ready to drive just about every par-4 in sight.
To help preview the biggest party of the summer, we asked BBC Radio 5 Live duo, Iain Carter and Alistair Bruce-Ball, to offer their thoughts and predictions ahead of The 150th Open at St Andrews. They were both in agreement about who will prevail come Sunday….
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Right then, who or what is the biggest storyline not associated with LIV Golf?
Iain Carter: I think Tiger is the biggest storyline because of who he is and what he means to the sport and what St Andrews means to him. I don’t think he’s a contender for the Claret Jug, but I do think that he is the biggest story. He always is. The only one that comes close is Rory McIlroy.
Alistair Bruce-Ball: I do think McIlroy trying to win his first major since 2014 is huge. He could really light it up for everyone. I think the other thing, whether you like it or not, is seeing who is going to play with who. Given how outspoken players have been about each other and their motives for joining LIV Golf, it could be really interesting to see Rory and Brooks Koepka, for instance, paired together in the final group on Sunday. That would be dynamite.
Whose form has surprised you so far this season?
IC: don’t think anyone could have anticipated the year that Scottie Scheffler is having. I also think that Will Zalatoris has probably exceeded expectations, having come so desperately close to winning a major. The surprise for me is how quiet Collin Morikawa has been. It would be a bit harsh to call it second season syndrome, but he hasn’t kicked on in the way that many thought he would.
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ABB: I actually think Jon Rahm is yet to really catch fire. He’s still playing well but I think we all expected more after his performance in the Ryder Cup.
Is Rory the man to beat right now?
ABB: I think he’s one of the men to beat. I would fancy him, though that comes with a little bit of a caveat because when the wind does get up on links courses, we don’t always see his best. But his putting and wedge game look very good at the moment and those are two elements which have let him down previously at past Opens.
IC: I wrote in my predictions for the year that Rory McIlroy was my tip to win The Open and I see no reason to change that opinion. He has been arguably the most consistent player in the majors this year with three top 10 so far. I was actually impressed with his stickability at the US Open where I don’t think he had his best game and yet he hung around on the leaderboard.
He’s got a sense of unfinished business at St Andrews, having so dramatically missed out on what would have been his title defence in 2015. I think it’s telling that he’s not won a major since then. It would be the perfect scenario for him to write that wrong, but then we have seen repeatedly at Augusta, and also at Royal Portrush, that when it really, really counts he hasn’t been able to produce his best…
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How do you assess Bryson DeChambeau’s chances because he’s never played at St Andrews before?
IC: Well, there are several players who will be seeing it for the first time, including the World No.1 Scottie Scheffler and the defending champion Collin Morikawa. Never mind Bryson DeChambeau. I mean, there are fitness concerns surrounding him and the LIV controversy. It would take a turnaround in form for DeChambeau to be a factor, but that’s not to say that he’s not capable of it.
There are going to be numerous holes where they can hit the green in less than regulation. There are two par 5s obviously, but then you’ve got holes such as 9, 10, 12 and 18. That’s half a dozen that could be drivable par 4s or par 5s that you can easily reach in two. If you think back to 1995, it was the biggest hitter in the field who ultimately won that in John Daly.
What do you expect from Matt Fitzpatrick?
ABB: His confidence will be through the roof. I’d expect him to go well, but it is very difficult to go back-to-back in majors. St Andrews is such a quirky venue as well and sometimes it can just come down to luck, being on the right or wrong side of the draw.
IC: Unless you are Tiger Woods, there tends to be a hangover after a major victory, especially if it’s your first one. I know from talking to him that it’s been an absolute whirlwind since winning. He was always going to take a break, but I don’t think he anticipated his time being taken up so exhaustively in the aftermath of such a great win at Brookline. But whoever wins this is going to be someone who holes more than their fair share of putts inside 10 feet and Matt is perfectly capable of doing that. And he is the new superstar of British golf and will have fantastic support undoubtedly after that victory at Brookline.
Who in the world’s top 10 will definitely not win?
ABB: I wouldn’t bet against anyone in the top six. I think the likes of Patrick Cantlay and Viktor Hovland are less likely, partly due to experience. And then Fitzpatrick because of how tough it is to win back-to-back.
IC: Patrick Cantlay because he has yet to produce the form he is capable of on the biggest stage. And now that I’ve said that, load your mortgage on Patrick Cantlay winning The Open!
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Name a longshot to win?
ABB: Tiger is not going to win it, I’m afraid. Louis Oosthuizen maybe? But he’s not a massively long shot because he’s won there previously and has contended in recent majors. Someone like Marc Leishman isn’t a bad shout.
IC: My choice would be Ryan Fox. He’s been outstandingly consistent on the DP World Tour. History tells us that big powerful hitters can prosper at St Andrews and if he can continue that form, I think the New Zealander is seriously one to look at.
Who’s going to play better: Tiger or Phil?
ABB: I think Tiger. I’ve always felt he’s more suited to The Open and unlike the Masters, St Andrews is not the most challenging walk. I also watched a little bit of the LIV Golf event in Portland and Mickelson doesn’t look right, for whatever reason.
IC: I’m going to say Tiger. Phil is all over the place, mentally and physically. We haven’t seen anything to suggest he is capable of playing good golf with the turmoil going on. I can certainly see Tiger making the cut, but not Phil.
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And finally, who would you put your money on this week?
ABB: I’m going to go McIlroy.
IC: Rory to win and my each-way bet is Ryan Fox.
Iain Carter and Alistair Bruce-Ball are part of the BBC Radio 5 Live commentary team, which will be broadcasting live from St Andrews every day of The 150th Open Championship. Listen and subscribe by clicking here
BBC Radio 5 Live Open schedule
Wednesday July 13
7-9pm: Preview show
Thursday July 14
6am-7pm: Live golf coverage from day one of The Open Championship.
Friday July 15
11am-7pm: Live golf coverage from day two of The Open Championship.
Saturday July 16
1-7pm: Live golf coverage from day three of The Open Championship.
Sunday July 17
12-7pm: Live golf coverage from day four of The Open Championship.
You can also listen to all nine episodes of 5 Live Sport’s All About The Open podcast, hosted by Iain Carter and commentator Katherine Downes, on BBC Sounds. TV highlights from every day of The Open will also air on BBC Two each evening (Thursday-Sunday).
Selected betting odds
11/1 Rory McIlroy
14/1 Xander Schauffele
18/1 Jon Rahm; Jordan Spieth; Matt Fitzpatrick; Scottie Scheffler;
20/1 Justin Thomas
25/1 Collin Morikawa; Shane Lowry; Will Zalatoris
28/1 Cameron Smith; Patrick Cantlay
33/1 Dustin Johnson; Tommy Fleetwood; Tyrrell Hatton
35/1 Brooks Koepka;
40/1 Louis Ooosthuizen; Hideki Matsuyama; Sam Burns; Viktor Hovland;
45/1 Joaquin Niemann
50/1 Justin Rose; Tony Finau
60/1 Tiger Woods
66/1 Bryson DeChambeau; Ryan Fox; Sungjae Im
80/1 Adam Scott; Cameron Young; Marc Leishman; Robert MacIntyre
90/1 Billy Horschel; Patrick Reed
100/1 Paul Casey; Sergio Garcia; Webb Simpson
125/1 Danny Willett; Padraig Harrington
150/1 Francesco Molinari; Lee Westwood
200/1 Henrik Stenson; Ian Poulter; Phil Mickelson
250/1 Richard Bland; Zach Johnson
300/1 Marcus Armitage
1,000/1 Darren Clarke; Paul Lawrie; John Daly
*William Hill odds correct as of 12.30pm on July 11, 2022
THE OPEN 2022
Weather forecast for the 150th Open
Exclusive Jack Nicklaus interview
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Tiger in action during a practice round at The Open.
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Iain Carter will be part of the BBC Radio 5 Live team at The Open
