The 5 fateful shots at Augusta National that determine Masters glory

Which shots are the most consequential at Augusta National?

The classic risk-reward layout of Augusta National means that “if you hit the right shot at the right time, magic can happen,” so says Justin Rose.

Only the bold will conquer, but over-aggression will almost certainly be met with the sternest of punishment. It’s a lesson Rory McIlroy has learnt painfully over the years. Only now, on the eve of his 17th quest for a Green Jacket, resigning that defense is often the best form of attack on the hallowed Georgian turf.

Recent history has only reinforced Augusta’s reputation as a second-shot course, rewarding the world’s best iron player with finishes of 1st, 10th, and 1st in his last three appearances. Knowing where to miss when it’s “not on” is of equal value to sticking one close when it is.

Efforts to tiger-proof the track have undoubtedly influenced the birdie-par ratio on holes such as the iconic par-5 13th; Azalea, lengthened by 25 yards in 2001 and a further 35 yards in 2021. Accuracy off the tee is essential to make going for the green in two viable. Even then, there’s a decision to be made with places to miss few and far between.

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Marking the end of a treacherous trio of holes dubbed Amen Corner, Azalea’s second is perhaps the most obvious shot of consequence around Augusta. But does the data back it up? After all, the hole is one of only four where scoring averages under par, ranking the third easiest in 2024.

Let’s turn to recent evidence offered by expert statisticians DataGolf, who innovatively compiled a ranked list of Augusta’s most important shots, using the variation in strokes-gained (SG) outcome from each location on the course.

Higher variation in shot outcome, e.g., a wider range in SG scores, indicates more influence on the potential outcome of the tournament, hence being more important. So, let’s find out which of those high-risk-reward style shots are deemed to matter most at Augusta National.

Augusta’s most important shots

#5 – Going for it on 15

Name: Firethorn Shot: 2nd To pin: 231 yards

Going for the green in two on 15 has a high penalty rate of 12%. Finding the middle or back of the green is vital as approaches that are too short or ones that spin back from the green over the low-cut fringe will likely end up wet.

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#4 – Tee shot on 16

Name: Redbud Shot: 1st To pin: 168 yards

Great shots on 16 occur at almost twice the expected rate according to the data, meaning this is a shot that needs to be capitalized on. The hole can be relatively friendly to those who find the green with Redbud having seen its fair share of Masters aces over the years thanks to its friendly final-day pin position that rewards a well-positioned approach.

#3 – Pich shot after laying up on 15

Name: Firethorn Shot: 3rd To pin: 89 yards

Relative to expectations, this 89-yarder is the second hardest at Augusta, with players only hitting the green 66% of the time. That’s the same rate as would be expected from 185 yards on the fairway at a typical PGA Tour event.

#2 – Tee shot on 12

Name: Golden Bell Shot: 1st To pin: 152 yards

Golden Bell’s tee shot is the hardest shot at Augusta National, relative to expectations based on distance and lie. On tour, players are finding the green from this distance 75% of the time, getting to an average proximity of 25 feet. Here, however, those stats collapse to 47% and 30 feet with 6% of tee shots resulting in penalty.

#1 – Going for it on 13

Name: Azalea Shot: 2nd To pin: 217 yards

With the highest penalty rate at Augusta of 16%, Azalea’s approach from around 217 yards is deemed the most important shot based on the variety of potential scoring outcomes. The shot is a classic high risk-reward option, with Rae’s Creek penalizing plenty, but also rewarding 39% of players with birdie or better.

And, in case you were curious, the shots ranked 6-10 in order of importance were:

6th: 2nd on 11 7th: 2nd on 10 8th : 3rd on 13 9th: 2nd on 7 10th: 1st on 13

That’s three shots in the top 10 for Azalea (13th), making it the most consequential hole at the Masters. And with eight of the 10 most important shots encountered between holes 10-15, this six-hole stretch after the turn is one this year’s champion will have almost certainly played wisely throughout the week.

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