2025 Masters final round betting tips: Our expert’s top picks on Sunday

Resident tipster Tom Jacobs offers his Masters final round betting tips as we edge toward finding out 2025’s Green Jacket winner.

With just 18 holes remaining, it’s all to play for as the season’s first major reaches its climax.

Before we get in, having backed Bryson DeChambeau at the start of the week, it will be hard for me not to root for him on Sunday. (Though I realise I may be in a minority with that one…)

A quick recap from start of the week:

Schwartzel Top SA (7/5) won at halfway as he was the only South African to make the cut. 

Robert MacIntyre (11/10) won his first round three-ball – helps being in a group with Dunlap. 

And it looks like Zach Johnson has a good shot at the top 40 as well (4/1) 

Xander Schauffele on the cusp of the top 10 as well so that could be a good one for the halfway article, despite my faith in Hideki clearly being misplaced!

So hopefully we have something to shout about by the end of the week.

With all that said, let’s have one last go at it shall we?

2025 Masters final round betting tips

Round 4 twoball Betting

Hideki Matsuyama collapsed like a cheap lawn chair on Saturday, and Jason Day and Sungjae Im played out a tie, so we did not enjoy success with these in Round 3, but I am back with another couple of 2-ball bets that I think present some value.

Max Homa to beat Sungjae Im in Round 4 (8/5 SpreadEx)

Most people were predicting a missed cut for Max Homa this week, given his form and the split from his long-term caddie and friend, Joe Greiner. Instead, Homa has grinded it out all week at Augusta and now sits on -3 and is perhaps on track for a second-straigh top 10 in this major. 

I am not willing to bet on him being among the top 10 finishers, but I am willing to bet that he beats Sungjae Im in Round 4. 

We took on Im with Jason Day in round 3, when both players shot -1 for the day, but Im chipped in for Eagle on 2, and holed out from a bunker on 7 for birdie. His only straightforward birdie came on the Par 3 16th, and he otherwise made pars or bogeys, as his ball striking just isn’t allowing him to set up that many opportunities. He’s been pretty dynamite on and around the greens so far, and that could of course continue for someone who clearly likes this course, but Homa’s underlying ball striking numbers could see him edge him Im out here, no matter how surprising that might have been coming into the week.

Homa has grown into the event, shooting 74-70-69, and while he might not go lower again on Sunday, he might not have to, as I could see him winning on Sunday with a round of 70 or better.

Maverick McNealy to beat Harris English in Round 4 (1/1 SpreadEx)

Maverick McNealy posted his best round of the week on Saturday and is improving. Harris English posted a 71 on Thursday and has backed that up with a pair of 73s. So McNealy has gone 72-73-71, while English has gone 71-73-73. One is seemingly going in the right direction while the other is stumbling and that alone caught my eye. 

Additionally, when you look at the stats, McNealy has made 8 birdies to English’s 11, but McNealy has also made two eagles this week, and he’s the only other player other than Rory to make multiple eagles this week. That extra firepower might be the difference between the two golfers on Sunday, and I am also happy to just side with the more in-form golfer at this time. McNealy is officially ranked 10^th in the world right now, such is the form he’s shown, following his breakthrough win last November. 

McNealy is likely still excited to be here, and ready to go one last round in his first appearance at Augusta. English is more likely to be ready for wheels up, with little to play for.

Round 4 Lowest Score Analysis

I have done some analysis, looking at the players who have shot the lowest scores in Round 4 of the Masters over the past five years, to see if there is any rhyme or reason behind it. 

The findings as you might expect, is that the lowest score tends to go to someone who is out of contention, as the pressure is finally off, and they can just make a run at signing off with a strong score.

In 2024, Tom Kim shot the round of the day, shooting 66, bettering both Scottie Scheffler and Kurt Kitayama by 2. Kim was in 52nd place and 18 shots back of Scheffler, while Kitayama was in 50^th place. Kim had shot 77 the day before and Kitayama was bouncing back from an 82, so you don’t need to have played that well the day before either.

In 2023, Phil Mickelson rolled back the years to shoot a 65. He was in 20^th place and 10 shots back of the lead when doing so, as was Jordan Spieth who shot a 66 from the same position. Phil had shot 75 in round 3, while Spieth was one worse with a 76. Again, two players out of the mix, and bouncing back from poor scores on Saturday.

Ah, 2022, when Rory McIlroy finished in 2^nd place, a career-best at Augusta, all thanks to a final round 64. He was again out of the running, sitting 10 strokes back of Scheffler’s lead in 9^th place though and therefore playing free of any pressure. Rory hadn’t played poorly on Saturday, he just broke par with a 71, and instead was growing into the event, albeit too late. Still, it helped him to his best finish yet (until today, perhaps?)

Back in 2021, Rahm shot a final-round 66, the best round of the day by 2 shots, and his first under-par round of the week, after three consecutive and frustrating 72s. Tyrrell Hatton shot the second best score in that final round, having sat in 43rd place at the start of the day and 14 strokes back. He had just posted back-to-back 74s, after opening with a 71. He finally found a decent score at Augusta and finished in 18^th place courtesy of that low round.

In 2020, we saw a bit of an anomaly, as leader, Dustin Johnson shot the tied-best round of the day with a 68, but the three other players that also matched his score were 10, 11, and 12 strokes back of his overnight lead, respectively, so were all playing without pressure. 

In summary, it seems we are looking for a player who’s chances of contending are gone, so they can come out on Sunday stress-free. With Rahm, Rory, and Mickelson in particular we have seen some excellent Augusta players turn up in the final round, but Kurt Kitayama and Tom Kim both showed last year that those with less experience around here, could also prosper.

Davis Thompson Lowest Round 4 Score (55/1 Sky Bet)

Davis Thompson has impressed on his debut here at Augusta, and while he doesn’t go into Sunday with any realistic shot of winning, I do think he can sign off with a low score, and put himself firmly in people’s minds for future renewals.

5 birdies in round 1, 7 birdies in round 2, and 4 on Saturday, it’s clear making birdies hasn’t been a problem for the debutant, it’s been keeping the big scores off his card that’s hindered his chances. Still, he’s now playing every hole for the 4^th time this week, and hopefully he can get to grips with the ones he’s struggled with, notably holes 5 and 11.

It wasn’t a formula that worked for us in Round 3, but I am also keen on targeting Thompson as he’s managed to go on these birdie runs while putting poorly, and if he can spike with the flat stick just once, he can turn those bogeys and others into par saves, and hopefulyl continue making the birdies, to give it a run at the lowest score of the day.

He pegs it up with Tom Hoge, who he has just played the opening two rounds of the Players Championship with, and another player who could be considered in this market, given he has made 17 birdies, to Thompson’s 16, one less than birdie leader, Bryson DeChambeau.

A performance of this magnitude on Sunday would almost certainly lock up Top Debutant honours as well. Paddy Power make him the 16/5 favourite behind Echavarria, if that’s another way you’d like to bet on Thompson.

Byeong Hun An Lowest Round 4 Score (60/1 Sky Bet) + Top Asian (7/2 Sky Bet)

Like Thompson, Benny An has been making birdies all week, with 4 in each of the opening two rounds and 6 on moving day. This isn’t a massive surprise given how solidly he played here last year, and given his ball-striking so far this week, he is hard to ignore in the final round.

Again, like Thompson he will not have any designs on winning at this stage, as he sits 11 shots back in T21, but booking his spot for next year would be plenty of motivation to keep going on Sunday. He can do so with a top 12 finish, and the lowest round of the day would take care of that.

An ranks 9^th in SG Tee to Green this week, and that is made up by ranking 8^th in SG Around the Green and then being inside the top 20 for both Off the Tee and Approach. Like it so often is for An, the putter has been the problem, and while it might be risky sticking with this plan of backing poor putters, this is the sort of volatile market where it’s worth taking a chance on a streaky putting performance.

If he does shoot the lowest score in Round 4, he will almost certainly finish as the Top Asian ahead of Sungjae Im, who he is currently spotting three shots. I think that bet could win anyway, as Im looks fragile, relying heavily on his short game so far this week, so I would also look long and hard at the 7/2 available on An to be the leading Asian player by the end of this tournament.

While I considered, Hoge, Daniel Berger, and Maverick McNealy in Lowest Round market, I have gone with Thompson and An as they have made it very clear they could go low here if the stars align tomorrow, and will do so under very little pressure given where they are on the leaderboard.