How Rory McIlroy defied the odds by winning this year’s Masters

What do the history books tell us about who can win the 2025 Masters after round one.

History dictates that after this year’s round one, we should have ruled out 89 contenders. But why?

Just because something has never happened doesn’t mean it won’t.

But to rewrite the history books at any of sport’s iconic events requires something out of the ordinary.

The Masters is no exception.

The past quarter of a century has seen Sunday’s eventual champion follow a fairly narrow path as they progress toward the title, rarely leading the way after Thursday’s opening round, but never letting the early pacemaker out of sight.

It’s for this reason that we can predict with a little more confidence than our pre-tournament speculations who may be in contention after a further 36 holes, and more bullishly, who has likely run their race.

The Masters: Champion vs Round 1 Leader

• Why no one wants to win the Masters Par 3 Contest

What does it tell us, then?

1. On only four occasions in the last 25 years has the eventual champion been leading or in a tie for the lead after day one.
2. The average round one score of the eventual champion is 3-under-par, typically sitting just inside the top 5 on the leaderboard.
3. The eventual champion has never been lower than 10th after round one throughout this period.
4. Only twice in the last 25 years has the eventual champion clawed back a deficit of more than five shots after day one – Tiger Woods in 2005 (7) and Sergio Garcia in 2017 (6).
5. The eventual champion is (on average) three shots off the lead after round one, with four shots being the most frequently occurring deficit.

Who can we rule out based on the above?

If we are to back the Augusta storyline once again in 2025, we can discount any player outside the top 10 after round one and lean strongly toward those who are inside the top 5 and within four shots of the lead. And while the round one leader rarely goes on to claim the Green Jacket, it doesn’t seem right discounting them, especially with two round one leaders going on to win in the last five years.

So, by this (slightly questionable) logic, let’s have some fun and rule out 89 of the 95 players in the field, thereby meaning our 2025 Masters champion will be one of:

• Justin Rose
• Scottie Scheffler
• Ludvig Aberg
• Corey Conners
• Bryson DeChambeau
• Tyrrell Hatton

• Read Justin Rose’s secrets to going low at Augusta

And as for Rory McIlroy’s latest attempt to complete the career slam. We fear it may be looking like just that. Woods, Mickelson, and Garcia are the only names since 2000 to prove otherwise!

Oh wait…