2025 Masters betting tips: First Round Leader
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The First Round Leader market can be incredibly volatile and certainly tough to predict, but at Augusta, things are slightly easier.
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Firstly, you are only dealing with a field of 95, which is realistically 80 when you take out the seniors, amateurs, and golfers that have simply fallen off a cliff since earning their Masters invite. The field reduces again if you take the hard line of ruling out debutants, who typically don’t lead here after round 1 (Jordan Spieth being the most recent exception in 2015).
Secondly, in recent years, it’s been fairly predictable.
Bryson DeChambeau led last year, and that was the second time he had been first round leader at Augusta. The story was also the same for Brooks Koepka, who co-led with Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland in 2023, with Rahm himself going on to win the tournament and having been a perennial contender before that. That means in the last two years alone, we have had repeat first round leaders here.
Go back to 2022, and Sungjae Im led after round 1, having opened with a 66 two years prior to sit 4th after round 1, before going on to finish the week in 2nd place.
In 2021, Justin Rose was the first round leader for the FOURTH time at Augusta, having done it 3 times in 6 years early in his career. Jordan Spieth also achieved a similar feat, when leading the way after round 1 three times in four starts between 2015 and 2018.
Dustin Johnson had been 3rd and 4th after round 1 before holding the first round lead the year he won (2020), alongside Paul Casey, who had ended the first round at the Masters in 4th, 8th, 11th, and 12th place over the years. and Charley Hoffman who led in 2017, had already sat 2nd at the end of play Thursday a couple of years prior, and also sat 4th after the opening lap a year later.
In fact, Jordan Spieth, who would only be a surprise the first time when making his debut here in 2015, and Dylan Frittelli, who had played at Augusta but poorly, two years prior to sharing the lead with DJ in 2020, were the only two names you could argue were tough to predict. Maybe Hovland at a push, but he was playing well.
All in all, I don’t think there’s a course that provides better patterns for first round leader bets than Augusta, and we should take advantage of that this week by targeting Augusta specialists.
Masters betting tips: First Round Leader
Sergio Garcia 60/1 e/w (Sky Bet 6 Places)
Sergio Garcia has the history at Augusta that I am looking for from a first round leader candidate. He’s already held a first round lead back in 2013, and he’s finished inside the top 7 after round 1 a further 7 times in his career.
Even over the last few years, when he’s struggled, he’s threatened to do something after round 1, having sat 19th after round 1 when finishing 23rd in 2022 and 27th after round 1 last year before going on to miss the cut.
Now playing some of the best golf he has in a long time, I think there’s every chance he places inside the top 6 on Thursday, something he did three years in a row here from 2015 to 2017.
In terms of current form, he’s been inside the top 5 after round 1 in three of his last four starts, including when 2nd after round 1 in Hong Kong, where he won.
T12 in his last major start at the U.S. Open, where he shot 69 on day 1, Sergio has recent major form as well, which is a good sign.
Dustin Johnson 80/1 e/w (BetMGM 7 Places)
Dustin Johnson did not play well in the majors in 2024, and his lone bright spot in the big events in 2023 was his T10 finish at the U.S. Open.
It’s his form here specifically, though that will have people questioning his level of commitment and his form, as he finished T48 in 2023 and missed the cut last year. In his 5 starts since becoming Masters champion in 2020, Johnson has finished MC-T12-T8-MC. The first MC is not a complete surprise, having achieved the milestone win the year before and all the commitments that come with that, but the last finishes are noteworthy. So, why do I think he can come out of the blocks fast here?
Well, despite his nonchalant attitude, I have to think that at 40 years old, DJ still cares. He’s still two wins away from a Grand Slam, and he’s been runner-up in both the Open Championship and the PGA Championship in the past. While he doesn’t have anything left to prove and he certainly achieved what he set out to do by winning a Green Jacket, I do think he is motivated to find his major form again.
That belief is based on his recent form on LIV, where he shot a closing round 64 in Hong Kong to somewhat save face, and then went on to finish 5th in Singapore and 12th last week at Doral. Both of these strong finishes were built on the foundation of a fast start, leading after the first two rounds in Singapore, before sitting 2nd after round 1 last week. Go back four events, and he also sat 4th after Round 1 in Adelaide.
Go back to the 2023 majors, and you will see that Johnson was 2nd after Round 1 of the PGA Championship and 3rd after Round 1 of the U.S. Open. Sure, 2024 didn’t go to plan, but I am just asking for DJ to find the magic he’s shown in the majors throughout his career just once this week.
Even if you think Johnson is past his best. Even if you think he can’t contend this week, I find eit xtremely hard to deny his chances of finishing inside the top 7 after round 1 this week, and you are getting great odds on him to do just that.
If anyone else had finished inside the top 4 in three of their last four opening rounds, they would be strongly considered this week – we shouldn’t treat DJ, who is an Augusta veteran and has broken 70 four times on his opening lap, any differently.
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My Masters betting picks for first round leader.
