2025 Masters weekend betting tips: Our expert’s top picks for Augusta’s deciding days

Resident tipster Tom Jacobs offers his top Masters betting tips as the season’s first major approaches its conclusion.

It’s business time at Augusta National as 95 becomes 53, with just 36 holes left to decide the destiny of 2025’s Green Jacket.

Only 10 shots separate the top and bottom of the leaderboard on Moving Day.

Before a ball was struck on Thursday, I backed Bryson DeChambeau at 18/1 e/w, and I’m pleased to see the US Open champion has gotten off to a much-needed fast start at Augusta. My outsider pick in Shane Lowry is also going along nicely, heading into the weekend.

With prices now live for the final two days of action, here’s who I’m backing…

2025 Masters betting tips

Hideki Matsuyama to finish inside the Top 10 (6/4 BetMGM) and Lowest Round 3 Score (30/1 Paddy Power)

Hideki Matsuyama shot -4 on Friday despite losing strokes on the greens for the second day in a row, this time ranking 82nd in the field.

The reason he was able to shoot such a solid score in Round 2 was his approach play, with DataGolf showing that he gained +4.43 strokes on approach, the best of anyone in the field. The former Masters winner also ranked 6th in SG Off the Tee and gained strokes around the green, meaning he ranked 1st in SG Tee to Green on Friday, and by a decent margin. He ranks only behind Tyrrell Hatton in that category for the first two rounds overall.

Matsuyama now sits 12th, just one shot outside of the top 10, and given he’s managed to put himself in position despite being one of the worst putters in the field over the first two days, I am confident he can take further steps forward over the weekend. 

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In addition to his win here in 2021, he’s also posted two other top 10s, so we should be confident the Green Jacket owner can go well again.

Of course, there is the worry his putter struggles continue, and any drop off in his iron play could see things go sideways, but I think he can hold it together here, and get hot enough on the green to make a charge toward the top of the leaderboard.

While it’s likely too much to ask for him to win from this position, a top 10 is a more than reasonable outcome.

At the time of writing, no bookmaker was offering odds on Lowest Round 3 score, but now that they have, Matuyama at 30/1 with Paddy Power feels great value. He shot the low score of the round on moving day (65) in 2021 en route to the Green Jacket, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go low again today.

Xander Schauffele to finish inside the top 10 (15/8 Sky Bet)

One shot further back is Xander Schauffele, who, like Matsuyama, is hitting the ball beautifully but hasn’t been able to match his form tee-to-green when it comes to the flat stick.

This shouldn’t be a huge surprise at this stage, as he’s lacked tournament rounds in 2025 due to injury, but he might improve over the weekend – as he has done here regularly over the years.

Schauffele has finished inside the top 10 four times here at The Masters, first when coming 2nd in 2019, improving from 6th at the halfway stage that week. Two years later, he returned to finish 3rd, and he was in 12th place after 36 holes, just one stroke back of a group in tied 6th. 

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In 2023, Xander made a bigger climb, improving from 20th on Friday and finishing 10th, and last year he made a similar move to what we are asking this week, as he improved from 15th to 8th. 

Xander was sitting on level par here 12 months ago, two shots outside the top 10, and he’s in a similar spot here, sitting two shots back of the top 10, in T17.

Sure, we can’t just expect him to do that every time at Augusta, but he has now backed up a career-best iron performance at the Valspar with another strong ball striking display over the first two days here, in the first major of the year, and that’s a hugely promising sign.

Xander has posted six top-10 finishes in his last 8 major starts and has finished T17 or better in his last 11, so he threatens to finish inside the top 10 almost every time he pegs it up at the big events these days.

Hideki Matsuyama (6/5 Sky Bet) to beat Ludvig Åberg in Round 3

I outlined the case for Hideki Matsuyama to finish inside the top 10, and potentially shoot the lowest score of anyone in round 3, so naturally, I should take on his opponent, even if it is Aberg.

Aberg has not been able to hit his irons well for much of the season, and that part of his game reared its ugly head on Friday, when the Swede lost 0.57 strokes on approach, instead relying on gaining strokes around the green. 

I completely understand the risk of taking on a player of Aberg’s ability, but I really do think Matsuyama will take a step forward on moving day, and that means I have to take him in this head-to-head.

3rd in Approach, 5th Off the Tee, and 2nd in Tee to Green, the foundations are there for a big weekend for Hideki, and he knows all about showing up around this course in this big moment.

Jason Day (6/5 SpreadEx) to beat Sungjae Im in Round 3

Jason Day finally made a bogey on the 36th hole, but he impressively went 35 holes without dropping a shot and would have become just the second player in history to go bogey-free over the first two rounds of The Masters if he had parred the 18th on Friday.

While he wasn’t able to go blemish-free for 36 holes, Day is still clearly playing well, and that is backed up by him ranking 12th in SG Tee to Green and 16th in Approach. Day is also inside the top 10 for around the green and putting decently enough, so there is little weakness in his game so far.

Sungjae Im on the other hand ranks outside the top 50 in both SG Approach and SG Tee to Green, and is instead relying on a hot putter, as he’s 2nd in the field in that category. 

Any drop-off with the putter and Im might start racking up some big numbers, and Day could win this by simply being solid rather than spectacular.

I’ll side with the veteran Aussie, in the hope that his all-round game keeps him inside the top 10 and better than Im on the day.

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Will we see a Hole-in-One over the weekend?

We have not seen a hole in one yet at this year’s Masters, and the odds suggest it will come in Round 4 if one does come.

The 16th hole is the most likely place for a hole in one to occur, and the Sunday pin position is generally the one that lends itself to aces, but how likely is it we see one on Sunday?

Paddy Power has the odds at 10/1 for a hole in one in Round 3, but these dramatically fall in Round 4, where the price of an ace is 1/1.

The odds imply there is just a 9.1% chance of a hole in one on Saturday, but this rises to 50% on Sunday, so keep your eyes peeled for a magical moment in Round 4!

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